Come fall, however, a different story may start to emerge.
Tom Kloza, Global Head of Energy Analysis at the Oil Price Information Service, believes that high demand for gasoline means that crude will sit at a $50 “comfort point” for the next two months or so. Still, Kloza thinks there could be a fairly sizable drop after September rolls around
“We saw the highest demand ever, we used something on the order of 59 million gallons a day of gasoline,” he said last week on CNBC’s “Futures Now.” “That will prove as something that will help crude out for the next 8 or 10 weeks.”
The problem will surface after that period he said, when buoyant oil will “go into purgatory in the fall,” he added.
“You have lower refinery runs, you have a lot of gasoline because there are a lot of cheap hydrocarbons, and you have a drop of maybe 4 to 5 percent in demand even if the macroeconomic background is very steady,” he added.
A whole host of international events could also derail oil’s current stability. Kloza describedthe reaction to the Brexit results as “orderly and predictable” in an email Friday to CNBC. Yet he sees other global troubles as being more directly threatening to oil than the U.K.’s exit out of the European Union.
“In the fall, there’s no question there’s going to be a challenge in the marketplace, particularly if you see production in some of the places like Nigeria and Kurdistan will ramp higher,” said Kloza.
“I think we [also] have to worry about Gulf Coast hurricanes, which could knock out Gulf of Mexico production crude-side and really wreak havoc on the refined products side,” the analyst added.
Investors with their eye on oil shouldn’t discount the timeline leading up to the U.S. election this November, especially when trying to gauge demand in the fall.
“The question is really whether or not it’s a driving season thing and what happens after Labor Day,” Kloza explained. “You’ve got an election where people aren’t very happy with the choices, and they may show that it may not be to vote with [their] feet, but to vote with [their] cars in traffic.”
Oil dropped by more than 4 percent during Friday trading following the U.K.’s referendum results. Risk assets opened sharply lower in early trading on Sunday as investors continued to grapple with the fallout. – http://www.cnbc.com/