October, 2016

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What’s Next?

What’s Next for Crude Oil; Higher Prices or CrashCommodities / Crude Oil

By: Sol_Palha


“If the doors of perception were cleansed everything would appear to man as it is, infinite. For man has closed himself up, till he sees all things thru chinks of his cavern.” ~ William Blake

2016 started with all the Drs of Gloom stating that oil was heading lower and many even predicted that it would trade down to $10.00. It was kind of interesting to watch this circus as there is a saying the cure for low prices is usually low prices. It would have made sense to take a firm stance against oil when it was trading above $100, but not when it was trading in the $30.00 ranges. These same experts were busy proclaiming higher prices when oil was trading north of $100.00. Only when oil was close to putting in a bottom, did they muster the courage to issue even lower prices; they would have been well served by simply keeping quiet. Experts were all trying to outdo each other; each one is releasing lower prices and a gloomier scenario. Here are some examples of the stories being put out at the time:

Get Ready for $10 Oil: Bloomberg on Feb 2016

Oil could crash to $10 a barrel, warn investment bank bears:  telegraph.co.uk on Jan 2016

Oil Seen Heading to $20 by Morgan Stanley on Dollar Strength: Bloomberg on Jan 2016

Goldman Sees Risk of Oil Below $20: Bloomberg Feb 2016

At that point, we knew that a bottom was close at hand and on the 20th of January, 2016 we penned the first of many articles on oil. This is what we said back in Jan:

As it has closed below the psychological level of $30 on a weekly basis, it is likely it will experience one more downward wave before a tradable bottom is in place. A move to the $23-$25 ranges is now a strong possibility, and as long as oil does not close below $23.00 on a weekly basis, oil will start putting in a slow bottoming formation. Once a bottom is in, do not expect miracles from oil, trading will probably be limited to a tight range of $24.00-$36.00 for some time. Only a monthly close above $40 will signal that the trading range is going to shift to a slightly higher zone of $36.00-$58.00 with a possible overshoot to $65.00. Full Story

It is remarkable how these so-called experts always start to clamour and make the most noise when a market is either going to top or bottom. It would be fine if the advice they offered were of value, but they seem to tell you to buy when it is time to sell and sell when it is time to buy. In other words, their advice is usually on par with rubbish.

Marketwatch.com jumped the gun when they penned the following article

Why oil prices will head back toward $20 next winter:  Market watch May 2016

Now that oil is trending upwards; we won’t be surprised if articles calling for oil $100 start to surface again.

Oil traded as low as 26.14 and then reversed course and started to trend higher. It came within $1 of the top of our suggested targets. We also stated that oil needed to trade above $40.00 on a monthly basis which it has done. It’s now on course for a test of the $55.00-$58.00 ranges, with a possible overshoot to the $60.00 ranges. Fulfilling what we stated in an article titled Mass Psychology predicted crude oil bottom 2016 that was published in March of 2016; an excerpt of this article is listed below:

Notice that the $30.00 price point level has held on a monthly basis. Oil has not closed below this important level on a monthly basis for two months in a row, and this has to be viewed a very bullish development. Our overall view is for crude oil to trend higher with the possibility of trading past the $55.00 ranges. In the face of extreme negativity, oil is reversing, just as it collapsed in the face of Euphoria. A weekly close above 35.00 will set the foundation for oil to trade past the main downtrend line and in doing so send the first signal for a move to the $50 plus ranges.

Now that oil has traded as high as $52.22, what does the future hold for oil? Is it going to reverse and crash due to a stronger dollar as was the case with Gold or is it going to continue trending higher. Let’s take a look at the charts.

Light Crude Weekly Chart

We would like to start off by stating that the trend is still up, so all pullbacks have to be viewed through a bullish lens. We did not feel the same way about Gold, and we stated that early in the year that we did not expect much from Gold. That has panned out so far; as oil has buried gold regarding gains on a percentage basis.

Oil is now sitting on a zone of former resistance, and while the market is somewhat overbought, oil could still trend to our higher targets ($55.00-$58.00) without pulling back. For this to occur, oil cannot close below $49.00 on a weekly basis. A close below $49.00 on a weekly basis will result in a minor pullback to the $45.00 ranges. Long story short, oil either trades to the $55.00-$58.00 ranges from here with a possible overshoot to the $60.00 ranges or it pulls back to the $45.00 ranges before trading to the above-suggested targets. After oil trades to the $58.00 ranges, we do not expect much from it. After topping out we expect it to test the  $45.00-$48.00 ranges.


The trend is still bullish, and until the higher end targets of $55.00-58.00 are hit, or the trend turns negative, all sharp pullbacks should be viewed through an optimistic lens. The trend is showing no signs of weakness so it would take a rather significant development for it change. As oil has traded as high as $52.00 the bulk of the upward move we projected earlier in the year is completed; all that is left is for the upper-end targets to be hit; after that oil is expected to trend lower slowly. We are not expecting a crash but a consolidation; we will examine the longer term outlook after crude oil tops out.

“Only in quiet waters things mirror themselves undistorted. Only in a quiet mind is adequate perception of the world.” ~ Hans Margolius

by Sol Palha


Sol Palha is a market analyst and educator who uses Mass Psychology, Technical Analysis and Esoteric Cycles to keep you on the right side of the market. He and his partners are on the web at www.tacticalinvestor.com.

© 2016 Copyright Sol Palha- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Oil settles down 2% at $48.70


Oil settles down 2% at $48.70, records biggest weekly loss since mid-September

A pump jack and pipes at an oil field near Bakersfield, California.

Lucy Nicholson | Reuters
A pump jack and pipes at an oil field near Bakersfield, California.

Oil prices edged lower on Friday on doubts about OPEC’s planned output cut.

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries experts and counterparts from non-member producers such as Russia started two-day negotiations on Friday on limiting output to curb a global glut that has weighed on markets for two years.

OPEC producers on the outs

OPEC producers on the outs   

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled down 91 cents, or 2.05 percent, at $48.70 a barrel. WTI was fell 4.2 percent on the week for its biggest weekly loss since mid-September.

The close below $49 is a bearish signal because it means the $49 to $52 range supported by OPEC talks has been broken, John Kilduff, founding partner at Again Capital told CNBC. It could now fall to a support level of $46.40, he said.

Brent crude futures were down 69 cents, or 1.4 percent, at $49.78 a barrel by 2:44 p.m. ET (1844 GMT), on pace for a weekly decline of nearly 4 percent.

Russia expects a quick recovery in U.S. shale oil production so that an output freeze could be short-lived, Interfax news agency reported, citing the Russian energy ministry.

Russia will organize a gathering of domestic oil producers a week before the OPEC meeting, industry sources said.

A source close to one of the companies said the meeting had been postponed from Nov. 9 after discussions involving Igor Sechin, who heads Russian state producer Rosneft and is known for his anti-OPEC stance.

Commerzbank analysts said the success of an output deal would depend on whether Gulf producers Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar are willing to cut on their own if no agreement can be reached with others.

Futures Now: Segment 2

Crude in the ultimate tug of war: Kloza   

The number of oil rigs operating in U.S. oil fields dropped for the first time since June, oil services company Baker Hughes reported Friday. The oil rig count fell by 2 to 441.

Baker Hughes has reported steady rig rates or additions for 17 weeks.

Prices rose as much as 13 percent after Sept. 27, when OPEC announced its first planned output reduction in eight years. The cartel is expected to meet on Nov. 30 to hash out how much each individual member should cut.

“Clearly the prices for crude oil have risen high enough that a lot of producers, shale producers, did put on hedges,” said David Thompson, executive vice president of Washington commodities broker Powerhouse.

French oil company Total SA said on Friday it expected prices to remain volatile and continued to reduce costs, while Italy’s ENI SpA reported a larger-than-expected quarterly loss.

However, U.S. companies Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron were able to beat expectations because of cost cuts.

— Tom DiChristopher contributed to this story.

Oil prices rise on Venezuela protests, strong Asian demand


Demonstrators clash with members of Venezuelan National Guard during a rally demanding a referendum to remove Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro, in San Cristobal, Venezuela October 26, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Eduardo Ramirez
By Henning Gloystein | SINGAPORE

SINGAPORE Oil prices rose on Thursday, lifted by concerns over Venezuela’s stability as well as by firm demand in Asia, although doubts over OPEC’s ability to organize a coordinated production cut still weighed on markets.

International Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were trading at $50.18 per barrel at 0655 GMT (2:55 a.m. ET) on Thursday, up 20 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last close.

WTI futures CLc1 were at $49.33 per barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.31 percent, from their previous settlement.

Traders said concerns over political stability in Venezuela, a major oil producer, had lifted markets.

In Asia, South Korea’s S-Oil Corp (010950.KS) said on Thursday that it expected refinery demand to rise in the region.

As crude is the main feedstock for oil refineries, strong refining activity tends to be price supportive of crude.

In the United States, WTI futures received support from a 553,000-barrel draw in crude inventories to 468.16 million barrels. [EIA/S]

But some analysts said that the drop in stocks was misleading.

“The decline of 553,000 barrels last week was centered on the west coast, which is isolated from the rest of the network. Inventories actually increased along the East and Gulf Coasts,” ANZ bank said on Thursday.

Traders also said that oil prices were being held back on doubts that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers like Russia will be able to effectively coordinate curbs in output to prop up prices.

“Investors remain uncertain as to whether OPEC can implement the tentative agreement to cut production,” ANZ bank said.

A cut is being pushed by Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest producer, and it is being supported – at least by word – by Russia, not a member of the cartel but the world’s biggest oil producer.

However, OPEC’s No.2 producer, Iraq, has said it would not cut output, arguing it needs the revenue to fight Islamic State, and the government is trying to lure investors to boost output further from its current record 4.43 million barrels per day.

(Reporting by Henning Gloystein; Editing by Richard Pullin and Gopakumar Warrier)

US crude settles down 1.1% at $49.96, pressured by OPEC squabbling


An oil tanker is seen off the port of Bandar Abbas, southern Iran.

Atta Kenare | AFP | Getty Images
An oil tanker is seen off the port of Bandar Abbas, southern Iran.

Oil prices fell 1 percent on Tuesday, with U.S. crude breaking below $50 per barrel for a second straight day ahead of weekly data that could show a build in domestic inventories.

Analysts said verbal jockeying among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) created uncertainty about potential output cuts at its meeting next month, noting that a particular worry was Iraq’s exclusion from the plan.

International Brent crude oil futures fell 89 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $50.57 per barrel by 2:40 p.m. ET (1840 GMT).

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled down 56 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $49.96 a barrel.

Nobody agrees with Iraw;s numbers

Nobody in market agrees with Iraq’s oil numbers: Analyst   

Trade group American Petroleum Institute will issue at 4:30 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) a weekly report of crude stockpiles and other oil supply-demand data, ahead of an official report by the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected the data would show crude stocks rose 800,000 barrels last week, after a drop of more than 5 million barrels in the week to Oct. 14. Commodity-watchers said a leak in a pipeline leading out of the huge Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub should lead to more build up of stocks in the coming weeks.

“The sentiment is it’s a bit more negative,” said Scott Shelton, energy futures broker with ICAP in Durham, North Carolina. “There are some expectations that we can see a crude build.”

Official inventory data has surprised by showing drawdowns in six of the seven past weeks, including the largest fall in stocks since 1999 when analysts foresaw a build. U.S. crude stocks are closely watched to gauge supply and demand in the world’s biggest crude consumer.

The dollar rose to its highest level in nearly nine months against a basket of currencies, making greenback-denominated commodities, including crude, less affordable to holders of the euro and other currencies. The S&P 50 index for U.S. equity prices, a proxy for business confidence, fell 0.4 percent, the most in a week.

“The dollar moving higher historically is obviously a negative factor,” said Kyle Cooper, analyst at ION Energy in Houston.

Before this week, oil prices had risen nearly 13 percent in three previous weeks since OPEC announced its first planned output cut in eight years to shore up crude prices that have more than halved from 2014 highs above $100 a barrel.

OPEC mulls Iraq exemption

OPEC mulls Iraq exemption   

OPEC hopes to remove about 700,000 bpd from an estimated global supply of 1 to 1.5 million bpd. Details of how much each member should cut have been left to the cartel’s meeting in Vienna on Nov. 30.

Iraq emerging as a possible dissenter and non-member Russia as a potentially compliant collaborator ahead of the gathering of OPEC’s 14 member states,

Iraq, the second-largest producer in OPEC, said on Sunday it wanted to be exempt from output curbs as it needed more money to fight Islamic State militants.

Until there is more clarity on the planned cuts, which OPEC hopes will be coordinated with non-members such as Russia, analysts said oil prices would likely remain range-bound but volatile around current levels.

“Expect more of this choppy interplay until more concrete news emerges, as speculative buying runs into record producer selling of the futures contracts for hedging,” Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at brokerage OANDA in Singapore, said.

Crude Oil Exports from the US: Current Issues and Future Outlook

Natalie Regoli & Brian Polley, Texas Lawyer

After 40 years in place, President Barack Obama lifted the ban on exporting crude oil from America on Dec. 18, 2015. Some of the largest oil companies in the U.S. had aggressively lobbied Congress to end the ban since at least October 2014, when the lobbying group called Producers for American Crude Oil Exports (PACE) was formed. Congressional Democrats withheld support until Republicans agreed to a package of tax credits worth about $680 billion over 10 years related to certain environmental priorities, including renewable energy tax credits. Despite the initial excitement in the oil industry due to the lifting of the ban, the uptick in oil exports has been mild.

Following the 1973 Arab oil embargo that sent domestic gasoline prices skyrocketing, in 1975 Congress banned oil exports from the U.S. under most circumstances. Since then the U.S. energy industry has undergone a dramatic transformation, and the increased use of fracking and other drilling technologies has caused U.S. oil production to shoot up nearly 90 percent since August 2008. The surge in production has had many positive effects, including reducing gasoline prices to historic lows and the creation of as many as 1.7 million jobs, according to a U.S. Chamber of Commerce study. When the price of oil started sliding in June 2014, and then continued its rapid descent through October of that year, PACE was organized to begin lobbying for the removal of the export ban.

PACE’s fight to end the ban was joined behind the scenes by many oil companies, both Texas senators, most of the Texas Congressional delegation, other members of Congress with upstream activity in their districts, and trade groups including the American Petroleum Institute. Opponents to ending the ban included many refiners and downstream companies, many companies in the petrochemicals industry that use crude oil as a feedstock, some members of Congress with refining in their districts and environmental groups such as the Sierra Club.

Historically there were certain exceptions to the crude oil export ban, including that for the export of ultralight “condensate,” some exports to Canada and some exports from Cook Inlet in Alaska. The Canada exception, in particular, was a relic of an era in which Canadian refiners at the border relied heavily on U.S. light crude. Just as the ban on crude exports had exceptions, the lifting of the ban also has certain exceptions. For example, the 2016 act lifting the ban preserves the president’s power to restrict crude exports in response to a national emergency or to enforce trade sanctions.

The mild industry response to the removal of the ban is best explained by basic economics: There is simply too much supply on the global oil market. High supply combined with weak global demand growth has meant persistently low prices, which is not particularly conducive to overseas sales. The global oil glut has also sent a number of U.S. drillers into bankruptcy, causing lower domestic production and less potentially exportable U.S. oil in recent years. This reduced production probably cannot recover significantly until prices rebound. These conditions have set the stage for what the U.S. Energy Information Administration calls “sporadic” shipments of U.S. oil to overseas buyers, and most of these shipments have been test sales meant to demonstrate the high quality of American oil rather than representing new sources of long-term demand. In the months and years leading up to the lifting of the ban and at the time it was lifted, many industry experts predicted that the United States could be a net exporter of oil by the year 2022. However, if current market conditions and certain regulatory burdens persist, it is less clear whether U.S. producers will have the capacity to produce in sufficient quantities to export large amounts of crude by then.

There are some indications that exports may now be starting to rise. Global oil trading company Trafigura recently announced it is moving 5 to 7 million barrels of crude from the U.S. gulf coast to the U.K. and the Netherlands. The same company recently opened an office in Midland, Texas, where it will focus on moving Permian Basin-produced oil “around the globe to the best market,” according to the company’s director of North America operations. Whether exports will begin increasing more rapidly depends on the economics. If U.S. production remains low, and the gap between the price of West Texas Intermediate (the U.S. benchmark) and Brent crude (the global benchmark) remains narrow by historical standards, it is difficult to see how exports really take off. However, if the price of WTI returns to something lower relative to Brent, exporting more crude may begin to make sense for more players in the market.

Some energy analysts have suggested there is an opportunity for expanded exports from the U.S. due to the June 26 expansion of the Panama Canal. This past summer the Panama Canal Authority inaugurated a new set of locks which allow for the transit of larger ships. This was the first such expansion since the canal was completed in 1914. Despite some speculation to the contrary, the expansion of the canal is unlikely to have a major impact on crude oil flows. This is because crude is typically loaded on vessels classified as Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) or Ultra-Large Crude Carriers (ULCCs), both of which are still too large to transit the Panama Canal even with the new locks. Some petroleum products including propane are often loaded on smaller vessels, some of which can transit the existing and new canal depending the ship’s hull design. Therefore, although the canal expansion may increase exports of certain petroleum products, there is unlikely to be a major impact on crude exports.

Now that the ban has been (mostly) lifted, other regulatory hurdles and deteriorating domestic hydrocarbon infrastructure have come into focus. Removing the ban has theoretically removed artificial trade impediments which caused international energy market distortions, but without the removal of certain barriers to domestic production including drilling on federal lands and offshore and the expansion of pipelines and other infrastructure, the full potential of lifting the export ban will be difficult to realize.

The crucial element in the months and years ahead is for Congress and the next president to allow industry to improve America’s energy infrastructure, which can be done at very little cost to the taxpayer. Various regulatory hurdles to production remain, and the industry must now focus on having permits for new pipelines and LNG terminals approved, as well as gaining new approvals for oil and gas drilling on public lands. The stakes are high, since pro-energy policies could result in as much as $150 billion more in GDP a year according to some economists, increasing growth from 2 percent to about 3 percent. For the U.S. to enjoy the full potential benefits of lifting the export ban, though, lawmakers must roll back some of the more burdensome regulations on domestic exploration, production and transportation of oil and gas.

There is no doubt that the lifting of the crude oil ban late last year was a major development from a regulatory and foreign policy perspective. However, the impact has been much more limited from an economic perspective—we simply have not seen the increase in the volume of exports that some predicted. There is some evidence that this may be changing and more producers may be expanding their export operations and facilities, and this expansion may increase if the gap between WTI and Brent prices returns to historical norms rather than the current, narrow gap. Two things are certain: The underlying market conditions are driving the development of U.S. crude oil exports, and those market conditions are constantly changing in this industry.


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Iranian crude oil production rising

 Country slowly opening the doors to would-be foreign investors.

By Daniel J. Graeber Follow @dan_graeber Contact the Author   |   Oct. 17, 2016 at 8:04 AM

Iranian Oil Bijan Zanganeh says total oil production from the country is close to a pre-sanctions peak of 4 million barrels per day. Fil ephoto by Maryam Rahmanian/UPI
| License Photo

TEHRAN, Oct. 17 (UPI) — With the door opening to foreign energy investors, Iran’s oil minister said the country’s total crude oil production is rising to pre-sanctions levels.

According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, of which Iran is a member, secondary sources reported total crude oil production at around 3.7 million barrels per day, about a half percent higher than the previous month. According to Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh, the figure was closer to 4 million bpd, a level he said was near Iran’s peak from before nuclear-related sanctions were enacted in 2012.

Iran did not report its production levels for September directly to OPEC, whose members are reviewing coordinating with non-member states to hold production levels steady. Iran in the past has expressed reservations about cooperating with such a deal, saying it needed to regain a market share lost to sanctions.

Zanganeh said production cuts were not a matter up for consideration and any concrete figures for Iran would be discussed when parties to an OPEC output proposal reached last month in Algeria meet next in November.

Iran told OPEC it produced 3.63 million bpd in August, about 10,000 bpd less than reported by secondary sources. Iran aims to boost crude oil production to around 5.7 million bpd by 2021.

Iran said it would start taking applications Monday for oil and gas projects from potential foreign suitors. The state-run National Iranian Oil Co. said companies interested in becoming qualified bidders have until Nov. 19 to submit their credentials.

Zangeneh said new deals with foreign companies could be signed by March under the new contract terms.

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Crude Within A Whisper of 2016 Highs

by  Tyler Yell, CMTForex Trading Instructor  

The Algeria OPEC meeting has set Crude Oil on a Bullish Course that few can deny. The impressive fact of the recent run-up aligns with the seeming agreement from major sovereign Oil producers to cap production. The verbal intervention has historically failed to see follow-through the unison in managing an output cut is encouraging Oil bull’s to not give up now.

Track short-term Crude Oil price levels and patterns with the GSI indicator!

OPEC is looking to take production lower from 33,000,000 to 32,500,000 barrels per day by the Cartel. There are still questions as to whether or not all members will be on board once the production cuts are specifically divided and assigned. This week, Istanbul has the World Energy Congress where many high-ranking Oil ministers and Energy Company CEOs will work to see how to support the Oil market given the uptrend in the price of Oil.

The most encouraging sign today came from President Putin who noted that Russia is ready to join OPEC effort to limit Oil supply. Such signs of an agreement have encouraged the increasingly large number of Oil Bulls as shown by managed money positions via the CFTC’s Commitment of Trader’s report. Friday’s report showed that largest number of bets on rising Oil since 2014. The optimism in Oil is also bleeding into Commodity backed currencies like USD/CAD that has aggressively moved lower at the start of the week.

Trading View D1 Crude Oil Price Chart: Very Hard To Credibly Bearish Above $50

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Crude Within A Whisper of 2016 HighsThe chart above shows a few complementary technical development that places Bullish momentum in charge. Starting with the simple analysis, the price above the trendline (black) drawn from the February low is rather steep and price continues to push higher off these levels.

For now, price above the trend line should be a key determinant to stay Bullish especially if it remains aligned with Bullish Fundamental developments like supply cuts that were mentioned above. Another technical indicator that supports that bullish bias is the recent move above the 100-DMA (46.39/bbl). For the week of October 10, the 100-DMA also aligns with the Weekly S2 Pivot.

Lastly, a bullish Andrew’s Pitchfork has been drawn to replace the bearish Pitchfork that has helped frame price action over the last year. Naturally, the key resistance remains the 2016 high at $51.54 for WTI Crude. Above the 2016 high, the Pitchfork turns attention to 78.6% retracement of the 2015-2016 range at $54.75. If that level is broken in WTI Crude Oil, the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of the 2013-2016 range sits at $58.98, which is awfully close to the ~$60/bbl forecast of Saudi’s Energy Minister, Khalid Al-Falih’s forecast after the OPEC accord.

About Brent’s recent outperformance over Crude, Brent Oil has already broken above its June high, which may indicate WTI is not far behind. One reason for Brent’s recent outperformance over WTI may be evidence of Shale exploration and production increasing activity after the late-September OPEC accord to cut production.

WTI Crude Oil: Important Trend Line At 4720/40

By Jason SenCommoditiesSep 29, 2016 01:50AM ET

WTI Crude Oil: Important Trend Line At 4720/40

By Jason Sen   |  Sep 29, 2016 01:50AM ET

WTI Crude Weekly Chart

WTI Crude Weekly Chart

WTI Crude hits important trend line and 100 week moving average resistance at 4720/40. There is a good chance we have already seen a high for the day and could turn lower to 4680/80, perhaps as far as good support at 4640/30. Watch for a low for the day, but longs need stops below 4600. On a break lower, look for a buying opportunity at 4560/50.

A break above the September high at 4775 is a buy signal, despite overbought conditions targeting 4820/30 then 4845/50 & 4875/80.