The Algeria OPEC meeting has set Crude Oil on a Bullish Course that few can deny. The impressive fact of the recent run-up aligns with the seeming agreement from major sovereign Oil producers to cap production. The verbal intervention has historically failed to see follow-through the unison in managing an output cut is encouraging Oil bull’s to not give up now.
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OPEC is looking to take production lower from 33,000,000 to 32,500,000 barrels per day by the Cartel. There are still questions as to whether or not all members will be on board once the production cuts are specifically divided and assigned. This week, Istanbul has the World Energy Congress where many high-ranking Oil ministers and Energy Company CEOs will work to see how to support the Oil market given the uptrend in the price of Oil.
The most encouraging sign today came from President Putin who noted that Russia is ready to join OPEC effort to limit Oil supply. Such signs of an agreement have encouraged the increasingly large number of Oil Bulls as shown by managed money positions via the CFTC’s Commitment of Trader’s report. Friday’s report showed that largest number of bets on rising Oil since 2014. The optimism in Oil is also bleeding into Commodity backed currencies like USD/CAD that has aggressively moved lower at the start of the week.
Trading View D1 Crude Oil Price Chart: Very Hard To Credibly Bearish Above $50
The chart above shows a few complementary technical development that places Bullish momentum in charge. Starting with the simple analysis, the price above the trendline (black) drawn from the February low is rather steep and price continues to push higher off these levels.
For now, price above the trend line should be a key determinant to stay Bullish especially if it remains aligned with Bullish Fundamental developments like supply cuts that were mentioned above. Another technical indicator that supports that bullish bias is the recent move above the 100-DMA (46.39/bbl). For the week of October 10, the 100-DMA also aligns with the Weekly S2 Pivot.
Lastly, a bullish Andrew’s Pitchfork has been drawn to replace the bearish Pitchfork that has helped frame price action over the last year. Naturally, the key resistance remains the 2016 high at $51.54 for WTI Crude. Above the 2016 high, the Pitchfork turns attention to 78.6% retracement of the 2015-2016 range at $54.75. If that level is broken in WTI Crude Oil, the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of the 2013-2016 range sits at $58.98, which is awfully close to the ~$60/bbl forecast of Saudi’s Energy Minister, Khalid Al-Falih’s forecast after the OPEC accord.
About Brent’s recent outperformance over Crude, Brent Oil has already broken above its June high, which may indicate WTI is not far behind. One reason for Brent’s recent outperformance over WTI may be evidence of Shale exploration and production increasing activity after the late-September OPEC accord to cut production.