November, 2016

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Crude Oil Down Again

US crude settles down 3.9% at $45.23 on doubts over OPEC output cuts



OPEC technical teams fail to reach output deal -Report

OPEC technical teams fail to reach output deal -Report   

Oil prices fell as much as 4 percent on Tuesday on signs leading oil exporters in OPEC were struggling to agree on a deal to cut production to reduce global oversupply.

Brent crude oil was down $1.87, or 3.9 percent, a barrel at $46.37 by 2:38 p.m. ET. U.S. light crude oil settled down $1.85, or 3.9 percent, at $45.23 a barrel.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet in Vienna on Wednesday aiming to implement a deal outlined in September to cut output by around 1 million barrels per day (bpd), from around 33.82 million bpd in October.

But Iran and Iraq were resisting pressure from Saudi Arabia to curtail oil production, making it hard for OPEC to reach an agreement. That has led some analysts to suggest the meeting may fail to reach a deal or produce one that is unworkable.

OPEC deal or no deal could go up until last minute

OPEC deal negotiations could go up until the last minute: Analyst   

“The inability to arrive at a framework for a reasonable agreement after 2½ months of Saudi driven discussions strongly suggests any formal communique to restrain output will be a watered down version,” Jim Ritterbusch, president of Chicago-based energy advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a note.

Ritterbusch, however, said he believes OPEC had a better than 50 percent chance of reaching an agreement, which should offer some near-term price relief. He noted the burden of actual curtailments would likely fall on the Persian Gulf producers, especially the Saudis.

Documents prepared for a ministerial OPEC meeting on Wednesday propose the group cut production by 1.2 million bpd from October levels, an OPEC source familiar with the papers said.

The papers for the meeting also propose Saudi Arabia reduce production to 10.07 million bpd from 10.54 million bpd in October and that Iran freeze output at 3.797 million bpd, according to the source.

Iran’s oil minister earlier on Tuesday said the country was prepared to leave its oil production at levels to which OPEC had agreed at its September meeting in Algeria.

OPEC, which accounts for a third of global oil production, agreed in September to cap output at around 32.5-33.0 million barrels per day versus the current 33.64 million bpd to prop up oil prices, which have halved since mid-2014.

OPEC said it would exempt Iran, Libya and Nigeria from cuts as their output has been crimped by unrest and sanctions.

Non-OPEC producer Russia confirmed on Tuesday it would not attend the OPEC gathering, but added that a later meeting was possible.

Don't typifiy OPEC meeting as Iran vs. Riadh

Don’t typifiy OPEC meeting as Iran vs. Saudi Arabia: Reporter   

Indonesian Energy Minister Ignasius Jonan said he was not sure OPEC would clinch a deal to limit oil output when it met.

“I don’t know. Let’s see. The feeling today is mixed,” he told reporters when asked about the prospects of a deal.

Intense negotiations would be needed on Wednesday to cement a deal, Goldman Sachs analysts said. If OPEC agreed to cut production to 32.5 million bpd, crude prices would likely rise to the low $50s a barrel, Goldman said.

“If no deal is reached, our expectation of rising (crude) inventories through the first half of 2017 would warrant prices averaging $45 per barrel through next summer,” Goldman said.

In Asia, OPEC’s biggest customer region, oil importers made clear that they would not be happy with an artificial supply cut that hikes prices, and that in case of a cut they would seek more supplies from outside OPEC.

In the United States, analysts polled by Reuters ahead of weekly inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) industry group later on Tuesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday estimated, on average, that crude stocks increased about 900,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 25..

Oil Prices Climb Ahead of Key OPEC Meeting

The cartel hasn’t yet reached consensus on production cuts, causing volatility

Arriving in Vienna, Iraq Oil Minister Jabar al-Luaibi said Monday that he was confident OPEC would reach an agreement this week. Iran and Iraq, which have previously said they want to keep increasing output, indicated in a Monday private meeting that they would consider holding production steady, according to a person familiar with the matter.

That’s part of what drove prices higher Monday, said John Kilduff, founding partner of Again Capital.


“Iran and Iraq are holding the key to getting a deal done,” he said. “Their rhetoric counts right now.”

But there have been few indications that OPEC’s members have found a way around the hurdles that have kept them from reaching an accord, even with a strong push by Saudi Arabia. Russia, which isn’t a member of OPEC, has stopped short of saying it would curtail output.

Still, many market participants believe the stakes are too high for OPEC members to fail to reach a deal. Oil prices last month climbed above $50 after the cartel pledged to cut production. Some analysts now fear that U.S. crude could plunge below $40 level if oil ministers leave Vienna empty handed.

One challenge for OPEC is to nail down how much each country will be allowed to produce. Another is enforcing any arrangement when the group has a notoriously poor record of compliance and the fact that some sizeable oil producers, like Nigeria and Libya, are exempt from the negotiations.

OPEC’s output has also continued to climb over the past two months, with many countries pumping more oil even as they discussed freezing or curtailing production. In September, OPEC agreed to target production levels that would have translated into a 200,000 to 700,000 barrel-a-day reduction.

Tariq Zahir, managing member of Tyche Capital Partners, said the group would now have to agree to cut at least 1 million barrels a day to make a meaningful dent in supply.

“I think there’s going to be some kind of a deal done to save face,” Mr. Zahir said. “But you need to have a serious cut.”

Even if OPEC strikes a deal, its impact on prices may be short-lived.

“We may be seeing prices in the low 40s before we see the high 50s,” said Mark Anderle, director of supply and trading at TAC Energy.

Gasoline futures rose 4 cents, or 2.91%, to $1.4127 a gallon. Diesel futures rose 4.28 cents, or 2.91%, to $1.5128 a gallon.

Crude Oil down 4%: Overall activity was thin after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday

US crude settles down 4% at $46.06 on OPEC uncertainty


Pump jacks in an oil field over the Monterey Shale formation near Lost Hills, Calif.

Getty Images
Pump jacks in an oil field over the Monterey Shale formation near Lost Hills, Calif.

Oil prices fell as much as 4 percent on Friday, dragged down by uncertainty over whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will reach an output deal.

Futures extended early losses after Saudi Arabia said it will not attend talks on Monday with non-OPEC producers to discuss supply cuts.

Brent crude oil futures were trading at $47.02, down $1.98, or 4 percent, by 1:35 p.m. ET (1835 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled down $1.90, or 4 percent, at $46.06 per barrel.

Overall activity was thin after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and ahead of the weekend.


Expect OPEC to reach a compromise: Strategist

Expect OPEC to reach a compromise: Strategist   

Top OPEC oil exporter Saudi Arabia has told the producer group it will not attend talks on Monday with non-OPEC producers to discuss limiting supply, OPEC sources said, as it wants to focus on having consensus within the organization first.

“I think Saudi’s announcement it would not to go to the meeting drove the initial sell-off,” said Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital in New York. “There has to be a substantial cut and it has to be something that the street will believe.”

OPEC is due to meet on Nov. 30 to coordinate a cut, potentially with non-OPEC members like Russia, the world’s largest producer, but there is disagreement within the producer cartel as to which member states should cut and by how much.

Despite extensive diplomacy since September, the OPEC side of the deal still faces setbacks from Iraq’s call for it to be exempt and from Iran, which wants to increase supply because its output has been hit by sanctions.


One oil cut is not enough: Expert

One oil cut is not enough: Expert   

Reports that Saudi Aramco would in January increase oil supplies to some Asian customers also weighed on markets, traders said.

Saudi’s late push for more exports to Asia comes as Russia has stolen its place as top supplier to China, the world’s biggest crude importer and growth market despite a monthly drop in imports in October. This is a strong indicator that Riyadh’s policy to let prices slide in order to defend market share has not had the desired effect.

A decline in China’s October crude oil imports to their lowest on a daily basis since January added to the bearish tone.

Analysts said fundamentals were little changed — apart from concerns over the fate next week of the Saudi-led plan for the OPEC and other producers to agree on cuts in crude output. That deal would only impact supplies from February 2017 because most exporters sell their supplies two months ahead.

The market “is taking it easy ahead of a long weekend (in the United States) and uncertainty over OPEC,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst with SEB Bank in Oslo.

Krosby: Market needs new money to come in

Krosby: Market needs new money to come in   

Schieldrop said prices could rebound if the Nov. 30 meeting succeeded in reaching a targeted production cap of 32.5 million to 33 million barrels per day (bpd), from the 33.64 million bpd the group pumped in October.

On Thursday, the oil minister of non-OPEC nation Azerbaijan said OPEC was also pushing oil producers outside the group to make big cuts in output.

Most analysts expect some form of cut, but it is uncertain whether that would be enough to prop up a market dogged by oversupply since 2014.

“Oil market reaction will hinge on the credibility of the proposed action,” U.S. investment bank Jefferies said, adding that recent output increases to record levels in many countries now required a deep cut to lift prices significantly.

“The surge in OPEC output since August has shifted the market back into oversupply and re-balancing will be deferred until the second half of 2017 without a cut of at least 700,000 barrels per day.”

US Crude Oil down at $47,96

US crude settles down 7 cents at $47.96 as doubts linger over OPEC output cut


A pump jack and pipes at an oil field near Bakersfield, California.

Lucy Nicholson | Reuters
A pump jack and pipes at an oil field near Bakersfield, California.

Oil prices cut early losses after Iraq said it was willing to “shoulder responsibility” for some of OPEC’s planned production cuts and as U.S. government data showed crude inventories fell last week.

But gains were capped by investor doubts that OPEC will agree to a production cut large enough to make a significant dent in the global glut of crude.

OPEC’s deal faced potential setbacks from Iraq’s call for it to be exempt. Baghdad had said it needs oil revenues to fight Islamic State militants and questioned whether it should cut from the levels of OPEC’s estimates or its own, higher, production figures.

But Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi told reporters on Wednesday in Baghdad that Iraq is willing to cut its crude oil output as part of OPEC’s plan to reduce global supply and boost crude prices.

Abadi’s comments are the clearest indication so far that Baghdad will support an OPEC plan to cut production by 4 percent to 4.5 percent when it meets on Nov. 30 in Vienna.

Options activity heightens ahead of OPEC meeting: Pro

Options activity heightens ahead of OPEC meeting: Pro   

International Brent crude oil futures fell 18 cents to $48.94 a barrel by 2:35 p.m. (1935) after climbing to $49.42 a barrel earlier in Wednesday’s session on optimism OPEC would agree to an output cut.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures settled down 7 cents at $47.96 a barrel after rising to $48.30 earlier on Wednesday.

U.S. crude stocks fell last week as refineries hiked output and imports fell, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday.

Crude inventories fell by 1.3 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts’ expectations for an increase of 671,000 barrels.

Offsetting the headline data, gasoline stocks rose by 2.3 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 643,000-barrel gain. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, were up by 327,000 barrels, versus expectations for a 357,000-barrel drop.

Crude oil inventories down 1.26M barrels

Crude oil inventories down 1.26M barrels   

Also on Wednesday, Baker Hughes reported the number of oil rigs operating in U.S. fields rose by 3 to a total of 474 in the latest week. At this time last year, the rig count stood at 555.

Futures had edged lower on Wednesday on investors’ doubts that OPEC would agree to a large enough output cut to significantly reduce the global surplus when it meets next week.

A strong dollar, trading near the 13½-year peak hit last week, also weighed on prices amid thin trading ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

Exxon Mobil‘s giant oil refinery in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, was operating at planned rates on Wednesday after a fire Tuesday, according to a person familiar with the plant’s operations. The refinery is the fourth-largest in the United States, with capacity to refine 502,500 barrels per day in crude oil.

One oil cut is not enough: Expert

One oil cut is not enough: Expert   

Many traders anticipate some agreement at OPEC but fear the aim, proposed by Algeria, of cutting production by 4 to 4.5 percent, or over 1.2 million barrels per day according to Reuters calculations, may not be reached.

The deal’s success hinges on an agreement from Iraq and Iran, which may not give a full backing, three OPEC sources said Tuesday. Iran wants to increase supply because its output has been hit by sanctions.

In September, OPEC agreed to bring total output down to the level of 32.5 million to 33 million barrels a day.

Short-term though, analysts said that investors were currently unwilling to push crude prices to $50 a barrel or higher.

— CNBC’s Tom DiChristopher contributed to this report.

US crude settles up 3.9% at $47.49 ahead of OPEC decision on output


Crude oil higher on hopes for OPEC production cut

Crude oil higher on hopes for OPEC production cut   

Oil prices rose more than 4 percent to a three-week high on Monday, bolstered by growing conviction that major oil producing countries would agree to limit output at a meeting next week.

Brent crude oil briefly touched $49 a barrel. The London benchmark has risen 11 percent in a week since Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, started a diplomatic charm offensive to persuade the group’s more reluctant members to join its proposed output plan.

In recent days, several OPEC members including Iran, along with non-member Russia, have suggested they were leaning toward a deal to limit output.

“When you’ve got all of the major players on board with a production cut, obviously you’re very close to getting a deal done,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

“You never know with OPEC — sometimes they go to the last minute and there are a lot of false starts.”

Sunoco Logistics buys Energy Transfer Partners

Sunoco Logistics buys Energy Transfer Partners   

Brent crude oil futures were up $2.12, or 4.5 percent, at $48.98 a barrel by 2:28 p.m. ET (1928 GMT), having touched their highest level since Nov. 2, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude were up $1.73, or 3.7 percent, at $47.42 a barrel.

The dollar eased off last week’s 13½-year highs as Treasury yields nudged lower, bolstering oil and the broader commodities complex including copper and gold.

Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note that chances of an OPEC cut succeeding have increased, and they believe the global oil surplus will shift into a deficit by the middle of next year, which would support prices.

“Our base case now is that an OPEC production cut will be announced and implemented,” they wrote. In late September, the brokerage said conditions were not optimal for a cut to work.

Russian Vladimir Putin said he saw no obstacle to non-OPEC member Russia agreeing to freeze oil output, which at more than 11 million barrels per day is at a post-Soviet high.

Meanwhile, OPEC members last week proposed a deal for Iran to cap, rather than cut, output.

Iran has been one of the main hurdles facing any output curtailment by OPEC, as Tehran wants exemptions to try to recapture market share lost under years of Western sanctions.

Libya and Nigeria, whose exports have been hampered by violence, have also asked to be left out of any deal. A recovery in production from both countries means the onus to cut rests on Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors.

OPEC Meetings

OPEC needs a production ceiling: Analyst   

“While loose terms may be agreed, I remain skeptical that a full detailed agreement can be both achieved and carried out by OPEC given the clear differences that are so evident between certain key members,” OANDA markets strategist Craig Erlam said.

Barclays analysts said some form of deal was likely, but warned an agreement could have little impact.

“We expect OPEC to agree to a face-saving statement … (but) U.S. tight oil producers can grow production at $50-$55 (per barrel) and will capitalize on any opportunity afforded to them by an OPEC cut,” the bank said.

Hedge funds raised their net holdings of U.S. crude futures and options for the first time in three weeks in the week to Nov. 15, having delivered one of the largest cuts on record the previous week. The move highlights the nervousness among investors about betting heavily on oil in either direction.

Crude Gains With Industrial Metals, Euro; Dollar Pares Advance

Emma O’Brien

Updated on

Oil jumped on optimism OPEC will agree to a supply-cut deal, while industrial metals rebounded from last week’s losses and the euro strengthened. The dollar traded near a January high, with traders all but convinced the Federal Reserve will pull the trigger on a rate hike in December.

Crude rose as much as 1.4 percent in New York, adding to a 5.3 percent advance last week. With an OPEC meeting next week in Vienna, Iran’s Oil Minister said it’s “highly probable” members will reach a consensus, according to comments published by the country’s Shana news service. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined, while Japan’s Topix index rallied for an eighth day. A gauge of the greenback fell from its strongest point since Jan. 29 as the euro strengthened 0.4 percent. Nickel, copper and zinc gained at least 2 percent.

While the prospect of Donald Trump as U.S. president unnerved markets in the lead up to the election, his vow to boost infrastructure spending has turbo-charged bets on a Fed hike, underpinning the dollar’s steepest two-week rally versus the yen since 1988. Fed Chair Janet Yellen told lawmakers that the central bank is close to boosting borrowing costs, with speculation the president-elect will bolster fiscal stimulus already fueling bets on further policy tightening in 2017. In Europe, Angela Merkel said she’ll run as German chancellor again, news that may calm markets after an exceptional few weeks.

“We have little doubt that the world is shifting into a new paradigm where politics and fiscal policy will gain far more prominence,” Philip Borkin, a senior economist in Auckland at ANZ Bank New Zealand Ltd., said in an e-mail. “Markets are indeed behaving that way already as the ‘Trump trade’ of higher yields and the dollar remains the centerpiece of market moves.”


The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.2 percent as of 8:18 a.m. in London.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3 percent, with a gauge of Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong climbing 1.1 percent to head for the steepest regional gain.

In Japan, the Topix rose 1 percent to post its longest run of daily advances since August last year. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed more than 20 percent from this year’s low to enter a bull market last week, and Citigroup Inc., AllianceBernstein and Bordier & Cie all see further gains for Japanese shares.

Read more: Japan stock bulls say world’s biggest comeback isn’t over yet

S&P 500 Index futures increased 0.1 percent to 2,183.25. U.S. equities extended the rally sparked by Trump’s election win last week, with small-cap shares the biggest beneficiaries.


West Texas Intermediate crude rose for a second day, adding 1.3 percent to $46.28 a barrel after climbing 0.6 percent on Friday. Brent gained 1.4 percent to $47.50 per

Oil has rebounded since hitting the lowest in almost two months last week as members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries began making renewed diplomatic efforts before their meeting Nov. 30 to finalize the output deal informally agreed to in September. The group is seeking to trim output for the first time in eight years, a plan that’s been complicated by Iran’s commitment to boost production and Iraq’s request for an exemption to help fund its war with Islamic militants.Nickel rallied from a two-week low as industrial metals renewed their advance amid optimism over demand in China and the U.S.

The metal used in stainless steel added 3 percent on the London Metal Exchange after prices slumped 3.6 percent on Friday to close at the lowest since Nov. 4. Copper jumped 2.9 percent as money managers boosted their bets for price gains on the Comex to the highest ever. Gold rose 0.4 percent.


The yen touched 111.19 per dollar following last week’s 4 percent slide, the biggest since July. The currency last traded at 110.89. Strategists are raising forecasts for dollar gains against the yen at the fastest pace in more than a year after a Bank of Japan fixed-rate bond-buying operation — that attracted no offers — pulled 10-year Japanese government debt yields back toward zero.

“The trend for yen weakness will continue amid a very violent and volatile market next year,” said Shusuke Yamada, the chief Japan foreign-exchange and equity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Tokyo. “Even without any additional expansion of stimulus by the BOJ, the power of policy easing will strengthen automatically.”

Traders see a 98 percent likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates at next month’s meeting, fed funds futures show.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.2 percent, as the euro and the Mexican peso gained 0.4 percent. The South Korean won fell the most among major currencies versus the greenback, slipping 0.3 percent.


The debt market took a breather, with 10-year Treasury yields slipping two basis points to 2.34 percent following last week’s 21 basis-point surge.

After being largely left behind in the era of cheap money, savers may ultimately emerge as the big winners in a world where Trump is president. Yields on 30-year Treasury bonds have risen about a half-percentage point since the election as Trump’s ambitious spending plans prompt traders to ratchet up their expectations for inflation and growth.

US crude loses steam after rising on OPEC deal hope, settles down 15 cents at $45.42


Getty Images

Oil prices lost steam heading into Thursday’s U.S. crude settlement, as expectations of an OPEC deal to limit production were offset by oversupply concerns and a rallying dollar capped earlier gains.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Thursday he was optimistic the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would formalize a preliminary oil output deal reached in Algeria in September.

“I’m still optimistic that the consensus reached in Algeria for capping production will translate, God willing, into caps on states’ levels and fair and balanced cuts among countries,” he told Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya TV.

Falih said he believed the market was on its way to becoming balanced and that an agreement by OPEC at its meeting in Vienna on Nov. 30 would speed the recovery. He also said OPEC should cut oil output to 32.5 million barrels per day (bpd), the lower end of a previously agreed range.

Brent crude oil was down 37 cents a barrel at $46.26 by 2:45 p.m. ET (1945 GMT). U.S. light crude settled down 15 cents at $45.42.

Entering period of greater oil price volatility: IEA

Entering period of greater oil price volatility: IEA chief   

The dollar rose after strong U.S. economic data and comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen further bolstered the case for hiking rates next month.

“Two things the market is looking at: they’re looking at the OPEC news, and they’re looking at Janet Yellen,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “Right now with the dollar turning positive, I think that’s where we pull back.”

A stronger dollar makes the greenback-denominated crude more expensive for holders of other currencies, compounding bearish sentiments from evidence of oversupply.

The market was also still under pressure from U.S. Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday that showed a larger-than-expected crude build of 5.3 million barrels in the week to Nov. 11.

Stockpiles at the U.S. delivery hub for crude futures in Cushing, Oklahoma, which the EIA said increased nearly 700,00 barrels last week, rose 303,001 barrels in the week to Nov. 15, according to traders, citing energy monitoring service Genscape.

Crude inventories were also rising elsewhere, thanks to record output by OPEC, which pumps around 40 percent of world oil supply.

“The name of the game is ‘volatility’ as confusing signals are arriving before OPEC meets,” said Tamas Varga, senior analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates.

“We have evidence of oversupply — U.S. stocks rising — versus hopes for some action by OPEC.

OPEC will 'cheat' on any agreement: Gartman

OPEC will ‘cheat’ on any agreement: Gartman   

OPEC members are ready to reach a “forceful” agreement, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said on Wednesday, following a meeting with OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo, who described the situation as the most severe oil market crisis in 50 years.

Russia has also expressed willingness to support an OPEC decision to freeze output, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said.

But rising oil production and changing fundamentals “make a credible OPEC cut all the more difficult to achieve,” Jason Gammel, analyst at U.S. investment bank Jefferies, said.

“The physical market has shifted back to oversupply because of surging OPEC output, with the most material increases driven by improving security conditions in Libya and (tenuously) Nigeria,” he said.

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports rose to 7.812 million barrels per day in September as the world’s top oil exporter increased shipments by 507,000 bpd versus August, official data showed on Thursday.

“The exports figures suggest that they will not give up a critical card that they are going to use in the OPEC negotiations to freeze or reduce OPEC production before they reach such an agreement at the November meeting,” said Sadad al-Husseini, an energy consultant and former Saudi Aramco senior executive.

Oil tumbles as OPEC output swells at the fastest pace in 8 years

A worker takes oil samples from a well at the Gazpromneft-owned Yuzhno-Priobskoye oil field outside the West Siberian city of Khanty-Mansiysk, Russia, January 28, 2016. REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin/File Photo Thomson Reuters

Crude oil prices fell on Friday after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reported another jump in production in October.

OPEC pumped 33.64 million barrels per day, up from 240,000 in September, according to its monthly report. This was the highest in at least eight years, according to Reuters.

This increase throws into doubt the chances that the oil cartel will implement limits to its production levels when it meets November 30. Reduced output could lift oil prices and the economies of OPEC members dependent on revenue from exports.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for December delivery fell by as much as 2% to $43.75 per barrel, close to the lowest level in nearly two months.

Iran continued to be a big source of overall OPEC output. It said it produced 3.92 million barrels per day in October, although secondary sources pegged that lower at 3.69 million, according to Reuters. Nigerian production increased the most month-on-month, by 223,000 barrels per day; earlier this year, militant attacks in the Niger Delta region hampered production.

Like other risk assets including stocks, futures tanked on Tuesday in the initial knee-jerk reaction to President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the election. They rebounded on Wednesday, but are still down about 2% for the week after two straight days of declines.

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