March, 2017

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Crude Oil Price Forecast

Oil Has Best Week In 2017 On OPEC Hopes

by  Tyler Yell, CMTForex Trading Instructor

Position Trading based on technical set ups, Risk Management & Trader Psychology.

In a divorce from typical correlations, both US Dollar via the DXY and Crude Oil have found life at the end of Q1 17. Month end flows tend to be erratic, and thus, the broader multi-week trend should take preference over the multi-day move. However, the overall correlation of DXY & USOIL has dropped to a level of near meaningless with a 20-day correlation as of March 30 of -.138.

In addition to the erratic end of month order flow, it’s worth keeping an eye on the headlines for Crude Oil, which have recently touted initial support from OPEC members to extend the cut. The Production, which reached agreement in late November is scheduled to expire in June, but the option to extend the cuts were seen as a possibility if such action would help secure a balancing in the Oil. Given the large rise in Shale production in the US, which has seen a doubling of active Oil rigs since the May 2015 low per Baker Hughes International, a production cut extension from OPEC and likely Russia, could go a long way in putting a higher price floor under Oil.

CRUDE OIL – Technical Analysis: Whether or not Crude Oil is correcting a downtrend or beginning a new rise to 2017 highs is the key questions. The price is at a key juncture whereas a corrective move higher, that would favor new lows would favor price resistance near $52/bbl. Specifically, $51.97 is the 61.8% retracement of the late-February to March range. A turnaround lower below or near $52 that subsequently breaks below $47 would open up a move to the $40-44 zone we’ve long watched as likely support in a more significant downturn.

However, absent the risk of a turnaround lower in Crude, traders should watch for a clean break higher to nullify the view that we’ll see an extension lower. Traders would do well to watch a break above $52 as an argument that Crude may have put in another higher price floor near the 200-DMA ($48.63/bbl.).

Are commodity prices matching DailyFX forecasts so far in 2017? Find out here!

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Has Best Week In 2017 On OPEC HopesChart created using TradingView

The price action in late March has looked like consolidation, but one concern worth mentioning is the strong bounce in RSI(5). The bounce in RSI(5) looks corrective, which favors a trend continuation move lower and possibly to the $44/40 zone in the coming weeks if further weakness surfaces.

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Crude Sentiment Shows Retail Bulls Adding To Longs In Hope Of A Bullish Reversal

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Has Best Week In 2017 On OPEC HopesIG Retail trader data shows 65.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.87 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Mar 01 when Oil – US Crude traded near 5433.1; theprice has moved 7.2% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 12.0% lower than yesterday and 9.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 23.2% higher than yesterday and 7.3% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil – US Crude prices may continue to fall. Traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Oil – US Crude price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long. (Emphasis Mine)

— Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Analyst & Trading Instructor for DailyFX.com

Key LevelsOver the Next 48-hrs of Trading as ofThursday, March 30, 2017

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Has Best Week In 2017 On OPEC HopesFor those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours of trading.

Oil rallies to 3-week high as traders cheer U.S. supply data

MARKET WATCH

Bloomberg News/Landov
A crude oil storage tank at Cushing storage terminal in Cushing, Oklahoma
By

MyraP. Saefong

Markets/commodities reporter

SaraSjolin

Markets reporter

Oil prices rallied Wednesday, settling at their highest level in roughly three weeks after data from the Energy Information Administration showed a weekly rise in U.S. crude inventories that was below some market forecasts, along with bigger-than-expected declines in gasoline and distillate stockpiles.

Disruptions to crude output in Libya, as well as hopes for a six-month extension to the production cut agreement, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, added further support to oil prices.

Combined, the upbeat factors “offered the market a touch of optimism that perhaps things are headed in the right direction for global balance,” said Jenna Delaney, senior oil analyst at Platts Analytics, a unit of S&P Global Platts.

May West Texas Intermediate crude CLK7, +0.71%  rose $1.14, or 2.4%, to settle at $49.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract settled at its highest level since March 9, according to FactSet data. May Brent LCOK7, +0.17%  gained $1.09, or 2.1%, to $52.42 a barrel.

The EIA reported that crude inventories rose by 900,000 barrels to a weekly record 534 million barrels for the week ended March 24. But that rise was less than half the 1.9 million-barrel climb posted by the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday.

Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts forecast a climb of 300,000 barrels, while others expected an even larger increase, with Citi Futures forecasting a 2 million- to 3 million-barrel rise.

“An extremely big jump in refinery activity on the Gulf Coast, a tick lower in imports and a rebound in exports has led to a lower-than expected-build to crude inventories,” said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData. But that’s “an increase nonetheless—lifting oil inventories to a further new record.”

Still, Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, pointed out that supplies in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by more than 700,000 barrels and “if you add that to commercial-oil inventories, the increase in supply looks smaller.”

The EIA also said gasoline supplies dropped 3.7 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles fell 2.5 million barrels last week. The Platts survey forecast a fall of 2.1 million for gasoline and decline of 1.1 million for distillates.

On Nymex, April gasoline RBJ7, +0.53%  rose 3.7 cents, or 2.3%, to $1.672 a gallon, while heating oil for the same month HOJ7, +0.51%  gained 2.6 cents, or 1.7%, to $1.543 a gallon.The feud between Iran and Saudi Arabia intensified at the start of last year, but the two nations have since made moves to bridge their longstanding divide.

Elsewhere in energy trading, natural gas for April US:NGJ17  ended at $3.175 per million British thermal units, up 7.9 cents, or 2.6%. The contract expired at the day’s settlement.

The EIA will issue its weekly update on U.S. natural-gas supplies Thursday, with an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts forecasting a decline of 43 billion cubic feet.

Daily FX

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil To 200DMA On Libya’s Force Majure Claim

Crude Oil has shown volatility on Tuesday afternoon ahead of the DoE data on news that Libya’s largest Oil field confirmed Force Major and will bring production in Libya down to 560,000 barrel a day from its previous range of 700-800k. The closed pipeline accounts for ~20% of Libya’s output, and early reports are blaming fighting between armed forces as the reason for closure, but there has not been confirmation. The welcomed news will contend with Wednesday’s US production data, which is expected to further add to the fear that oversupply will weaken OPEC’s efforts.

On the charts, the technical focus has solely been on the 200-DMA, which has historically been a key divisor of the market between Bullish and Bearishness. The 200-DMA currently sits at $48.62/bbl as of Tuesday afternoon and price looks set to push lower.

Are commodity prices matching DailyFX forecasts so far in 2017? Find out here!

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil To 200DMA On Libya’s Force Majure ClaimChart created using TradingView

The price action in late March has looked like consolidation, but one concern worth mentioning is the strong bounce in RSI(5). The bounce in RSI(5) looks corrective, which favors a trend continuation move lower and possibly to the $44/40 zone in the coming weeks if further weakness surfaces.

The price zone in focus if we continue under the 200-DMA encompassing the 38.2-50% retracement of the February-January price range that also houses the November low and the Median Line of Andrew’s Pitchfork drawn off the key pivots in mid-2015 through February. The zone is $44/$40.57. Naturally, a break back above the 200-DMA that aligns with USD-weakness (CL1 to DXY 20-day correlation is -.256) would help turn the focus higher toward the $55/57 zone.

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The price of Crude Oil recently traded below the 200-DMA with RSI(5) registering a bearish extreme. If the price pops higher as it did in April, August, and November of last year, the Bulls may feel as though they have dodged a bullet. However, the Crude Oil market does not have the fundamental support that other commodity sectors like base metals have, which could lead to an eventual breakdown toward the November low of $43.75/42.25.

Wednesday’s US Production data, which recently showed stockpiles at record highs will continue to stoke worries about increasing oversupply alongside a lack of buying pressure. When combining those two components alongside sentiment, it’s my preference to favor a further drop in Crude Prices or at least a further drift sideways as the forwards curve show.

CrudeSentiment Shows Retail Bulls Holding On To Longs In Hope Of A Reversal

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil To 200DMA On Libya’s Force Majure ClaimIG Crude Oil retail trader data shows 74.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.9 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Mar 01 when Oil – US Crude traded near 5433.1; theprice has moved 11.0% lower since then.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil – US Crude prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil – US Crude-bearish contrarian trading bias. (Emphasis Mine)

Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Analyst & Trading Instructor for DailyFX.com

Key LevelsOver the Next 48-hrs of Trading as ofTuesday, March 28, 2017

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil To 200DMA On Libya’s Force Majure ClaimFor those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours of trading.

Contact and follow Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

Crude Oil Stocks Set Record

Crude oil inventories jumped to a new record last week, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), causing prices on the futures market to decline. Since the beginning of 2017, inventories have increased 10 out of 11 weeks.

Oil inventories in the U.S. rose 50 million barrels to 533,110 million barrels since the first week in January, according to EIA’s report issued on March 22. Crude oil inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for U.S. crude futures rose 1.4 million barrels, the EIA said.

Prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped to around $47 in response to the news.

Speculators attributed the rise in stock to an increase in U.S. oil production and a rise in oil imports. However, worldwide supplies appear to be smaller than they were a year ago, while demand is picking up. Production from OPEC members has declined since January. Demand in two key countries – China and India – increased in February.

Declining oil production and increased demand on the international markets appear to have softened the blow to crude oil prices in the U.S. Brent crude, which is traded in London, closed above $50 a barrel for the first time since November 30, closing at $50.64 per barrel on March 22. Refinery runs rose 329,000 barrels per day as utilization rates jumped 2.3 percentage points to 87.4% of capacity, led by higher runs at Gulf Coast and Midwest refiners. Gasoline stocks fell 2.8 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 2 million-barrel drop. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.9 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.4 million-barrel drop, according to EIA data.

Alex Mills is President of the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers.  The opinions expressed are solely of the author.

Oil prices finished slightly higher Friday, but logged their third weekly loss in a month.

5 key signatories to the OPEC output deal meet in Kuwait on Sunday

Reuters
Comments from Saudi Arabia are giving oil prices a bump higher on Friday
By

MyraP. Saefong

Markets/commodities reporter

SaraSjolin

Markets reporter

Oil prices finished slightly higher Friday, but logged their third weekly loss in a month.

Traders continued to weigh signs of OPEC-led cutbacks in global crude production ahead of a meeting of oil producers this weekend, against data pointing to the likelihood of further gains in U.S. output.

May West Texas Intermediate crude CLK7, +0.92%  rose 27 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $47.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It touched intraday highs above $48 early Friday following news that Saudi Arabia said it cut oil exports to the U.S. in March by around 300,000 barrels a day.

For the week, May WTI oil futures saw a loss of about 1.7% from the week-ago settlement of $48.78 for the April contract, which was the front month at the time. The May contract itself lost 2.7% for the week, according to FactSet data.

May Brent crude LCOK7, +0.81%  added 24 cents, or 0.5%, to $50.80 a barrel—for a weekly loss of about 1.9%.

For the session, “oil managed to rebound not because of an uptick in buyer interest, but because of book-squaring into this weekend’s OPEC gathering,” Tyler Richey, co-editor of the Sevens Report, told MarketWatch.

Five representatives of the countries that signed up to the output agreement—Kuwait, Algeria, Venezuela, and non-OPEC nations Russia and Oman—will meet in Kuwait on Sunday to review the current level of compliance. Most members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are adhering to their pledges to make cuts, but data suggest not all non-OPEC producers are sticking to their quotas.

If OPEC says ‘something crazy while electronic markets are closed between now and Sunday night, it could cause futures to gap higher at next week’s open.’

Tyler Richey, Sevens Report

“There is no question that OPEC is losing its grip on the market, but if they say something crazy while electronic markets are closed between now and Sunday night, it could cause futures to gap higher at next week’s open,” Richey said.

But then there’s the U.S., which isn’t part of the agreement.

“OPEC has done their part, but U.S. inventory data is still rising, keeping the lid on the oil price,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets.

Data on the number of active U.S. oil rigs from Baker Hughes BHI, -0.29%  released Friday revealed a rise of 21 to 652 rigs this week—suggesting the likelihood of a rise in domestic production to come. The oil rig count has climbed every week this year so far, except for one.

Oil prices have been under pressure for most of the week, as U.S. stockpiles hit a record, based on weekly data from the EIA going back to 1982.

Read: Past oil spending could make for glut next year: Goldman Sachs

Also see: Explaining why some say Keystone will create thousands of jobs, and others say 35

Elsewhere in the energy spectrum, gasoline for April RBJ7, +1.34%  settled up 1% at $1.605 a gallon, to end the week up 0.4%, while April heating oil HOJ7, +1.12%  added 0.5% at $1.498 a gallon, down about 0.7% for the week.

Read: Gasoline prices notch smallest price move in 8 years

Natural gas for April NGJ17, +0.98%  added 0.8% to $3.076 per million British thermal units—settling about 3.4% higher for the week.

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Oil settles at $48.04

CNBC

Reuters

Oil settles at $48.04, down 20 cents, as US crude stockpiles swell

Oil

Lucy Nicholson | Reuters

Oil prices recouped much of their losses after sliding to almost four-month lows on Wednesday after data showed U.S. crude inventories rising faster than expected, piling pressure on OPEC to extend output cuts beyond June.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. inventories climbed by almost 5 million barrels to 533.1 million last week, far outpacing forecasts for an increase of 2.8 million.

“A persistent increase in U.S. oil production, together with a rise in imports from Canada, contributed towards a large build in crude oil inventories,” said Abhishek Kumar, senior energy analyst at Interfax Energy in London.

“The market remains nervous about rising U.S. production, which is also reducing the effectiveness of output cuts by the OPEC and some non-OPEC countries,” Kumar added.

A close look at close oil sentiment

A close look at close oil sentiment   

Global benchmark Brent crude futures for May delivery were down 31 cents at $50.65 a barrel by 2:33 p.m. EDT (1833 GMT). The contract fell as low as $49.71.

On its first day as the front-month, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for May settled 20 cents lower at $48.04 per barrel. The session low was $47.01.

Both benchmarks hit their lowest since Nov. 30 when OPEC countries agreed to cut output, and both remained in technically oversold territory. WTI was oversold for the third day in a row, Brent for the second.

A deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some non-OPEC producers to reduce output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of 2017 has done little to reduce bulging global oil stockpiles.

OPEC, which sources say is leaning toward extending cuts, has broadly delivered on pledged reductions, but non-OPEC states have yet to cut fully in line with commitments.

Trader sees oil reversing course for a rally

Trader sees oil reversing course for a rally   

“OPEC has used up most of its arsenal of verbal weapons to support the market. One hundred percent compliance by all is the only tool they have left and on that account they are struggling,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

U.S. shale oil producers have been adding rigs, boosting the country’s weekly oil production to about 9.1 million bpd for the week ended March 10 from an average 8.9 million bpd for 2016, according to U.S. data.

“OPEC’s market intervention has not yet resulted in significant visible inventory drawdowns, and the financial markets have lost patience,” U.S. bank Jefferies said in a note.

But the bank said the market was undersupplied and, if OPEC extended cuts into the second half, inventories would draw down and prices recover above $60 in the fourth quarter.

However, it said U.S. crude production was expected to grow by 360,000 bpd in 2017 and 1 million bpd in 2018, and a price recovery could spur more U.S. shale activity.

Oil ends lower as April contracts expire ahead of U.S. crude-supply data

MARKET WATCH

Trades look for hints on potential for OPEC output cut extension

Shutterstock/zhengzaishuru

By

MyraP. Saefong

Markets/commodities reporter

RachelKoning Beals

News editor

Oil prices settled lower Tuesday in volatile trading tied to the expiration of the April futures contracts, ahead of data expected to reveal a rise in weekly U.S. crude supplies.

Traders also kept an eye out for hints on whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will extend the production-cut agreement between its members and other major producers beyond June. OPEC sources have indicated that members increasingly favor an extension but want the backing of non-OPEC oil producers, which have yet to deliver fully on existing cuts.

April West Texas Intermediate crude CLJ7, -1.49% declined by 88 cents, or 1.8%, to settle at $47.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract, which expired at the settlement, finish at their lowest level since November, according to FactSet data. May WTI CLK7, -0.58% which is now the front-month contract, shed 67 cents, or 1.4%, to finish at $48.24 a barrel.

May Brent crude LCOK7, -0.51% lost 66 cents, or 1.3%, to $50.96 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

“WTI crude oil was unable to hold on to early gains despite a falling U.S. dollar providing support to commodity prices in general,” Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at CMC Markets, told MarketWatch.

“Given the high volatility and big surprises in both directions of the last three weeks, it appears some traders may be going to the sidelines ahead of the [supply data] news, while others may be expecting a big build after last week’s surprise decline,” he said.

Petroleum inventory data are due out from the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday and Energy Information Administration early Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts forecast a climb of 2 million barrels in crude inventories for the week ended March 17.

“A lot of the recent volatility in oil has been around traders trying to figure out if the big build we saw in U.S. inventories in the winter is over or not,” said Cieszynski. EIA data released last week showed the first decline in crude stockpiles in 10 weeks.

The world’s biggest crude exporter is conceding ground to shale producers in the U.S., people familiar with current Saudi policy said. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports to the U.S. for the week ended March 10 fell by 426,000 barrels a day compared with the previous week, according to U.S. data.

Elsewhere in energy trading, April gasoline RBJ7, -0.28%  fell by 0.4% to $1.605 a gallon, while April heating oil HOJ7, -0.39%  lost 0.7% to $1.503 a gallon.

April natural gas NGJ17, -0.32%  settled at $3.093 per million British thermal units, up 1.7%.

US crude oil up 2.4%

US crude settles at $48.86, up 2.4% on stockpile drop, snapping 7-session losing streak

Futures Now: Crude oil breaks losing streak

Futures Now: Crude oil breaks losing streak   

Oil prices rose more than 2 percent Wednesday, lifted by a surprise drawdown in U.S. crude inventories and data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggesting OPEC cuts should create a crude deficit in the first half of 2017.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed U.S. crude stocks fell last week, dropping after nine consecutive increases.

Inventories fell by 237,000 barrels in the week to March 10, compared with analysts’ expectations for an increase of 3.7 million barrels.

The IEA said global inventories rose in January for the first time in six months despite OPEC output cuts, but said if it stuck to its production curbs the market should see a deficit of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the first half.

“For those looking for a rebalancing of the oil market the message is that they should be patient, and hold their nerve,” the IEA said in its monthly report.

Futures Now: Crude oil breaks losing streak

Futures Now: Crude oil breaks losing streak   

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ended Wednesday’s trade up $1.14, or 2.4 percent, at $48.86, snapping a seven-session losing streak.

Brent futures were up 83 cents, or 1.6 percent, at $51.75 a barrel by 2:39 p.m. ET (1839 GMT). Prices had hit a three-month low of $50.25 during the previous day’s trading.

Prices extended gains after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates in a widely anticipated move that sent the dollar index lower. A weaker greenback makes dollar-denominated crude oil more affordable to holders of other currencies.

EIA also reported gasoline stocks fell by 3.1 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2 million-barrel drop. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, were down 4.2 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.7 million-barrel drop.

Earlier, the IEA reported global inventories rising in January for the first time in six months despite OPEC cuts since Jan. 1, but said if OPEC stuck to limits the market should see a deficit of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of 2017.

“As long as OPEC stays on track and non-OPEC delivers on their agreed cuts, the market will continue to balance,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said at the end of November it would cut 1.2 million bpd during the first half of 2017, and then in December reached a deal with non-OPEC producers to cut about 600,000 bpd from their output.

Matt Smith: US inventory at record highs

Matt Smith: US oil inventories at record highs   

Despite OPEC compliance with its share of the cuts, stockpiles have continued to rise, in part because OPEC members pumped heavily before cuts kicked in and also because U.S. shale producers have raised output as Brent spiked above $58 in January.

Last week, prices plummeted more than 5 percent, the biggest drop in a year, as U.S. crude inventories surged much more than expected to a record high.

“While such patience (counseled by the IEA) may indeed benefit longer-term investors it may not be much help for money managers facing year-to-date losses on long positions, whether longer-term holdings benchmarked to the December 30 Brent closing price of $56.82 or purchased over the long period of range trading over the first ten weeks of the year,” Tim Evans, Citi Futures’ energy futures specialist, said in a note.

“Surplus inventories and rising U.S. production may be more of a worry to them.”

On Tuesday, prices had been hit hard by an OPEC report showing a rise in global crude stocks and a surprise output jump from OPEC’s biggest member, Saudi Arabia.

Secondary sources had said Saudi output fell in February to 9.797 million barrels per day (bpd), but Riyadh told OPEC it rose to 10.011 million bpd.

Saudi Arabia played down the figures, saying its supplies to the markers were effectively stable during January and February.

— CNBC’s Tom DiChristopher contributed to this report.

Weekly Outlook for Crude Oil

Crude Oil Futures – Weekly Outlook: March 13 – 17

© Reuters. Oil books a weekly loss of just over 9% amid glut concerns© Reuters. Oil books a weekly loss of just over 9% amid glut concerns

Investing.com – Oil futures settled at the lowest level since the end of November on Friday, booking a weekly loss of around 9% as concern over rising shale production and record-high U.S. crude inventories offset optimism that OPEC and its allies have been following through on their commitment to cut production.

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude April contract touched a session low of $48.31 a barrel on Friday, a level not seen since November 30. It was last at $48.49 by close of trade, down 88 cents, or about 1.8%.

The U.S. benchmark lost $4.84, or almost 9%, on the week, its biggest weekly drop in five months.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for May delivery slumped 82 cents, or about 1.6%, to settle at $51.37 a barrel by close of trade. The global benchmark fell to $51.14 earlier, its cheapest since November 30.

For the week, London-traded Brent futures recorded a loss of $4.53, or 8.1%, the fifth straight weekly decline.

Concerns that the ongoing rebound in U.S. shale production could derail efforts by other major producers to rebalance global oil supply and demand pressured crude prices.

Data from oilfield services provider Baker Hughes on Friday revealed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by 8 last week, the eighth weekly increase in a row. That brought the total count to 617, the most since October 2015.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that crude supplies jumped by 8.2 million barrels last week to yet another all-time high of 528.4 million. It was the ninth straight weekly build in U.S. stockpiles, feeding concerns about a global glut.

Oil prices have been trading in a narrow $5 range around the low-to-mid-$50s over the past three months as sentiment in oil markets has been torn between rising stockpiles and increased shale production in the U.S. and hopes that oversupply may be curbed by output cuts announced by major global producers.

OPEC and non-OPEC countries made a strong start to lowering their oil output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day by the end of June, but so far the move has had little impact on inventory levels.

Kuwait is scheduled to host a ministerial meeting on March 26 comprising both OPEC and non-OPEC members to review compliance with the output agreement and to discuss whether cuts would be extended beyond June.

Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for April shed 2.4 cents, or about 1.5% to $1.600 on Friday. It ended down about 3.2% for the week.

April heating oil inched down 2.5 cents, or 1.7%, to finish at $1.503 a gallon, the lowest since November 30. For the week, the fuel lost roughly 5.7%.

Natural gas futures for April delivery rose 3.4 cents, or almost 1.2%, to $3.008 per million British thermal units. It posted a weekly gain of 6.4%.

In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Meanwhile, investors will keep an eye out for monthly reports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties and the International Energy Agency to gauge global supply and demand levels.

Traders will also continue to pay close attention to comments from global oil producers for further evidence that they are complying with their agreement to reduce output this year.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Tuesday, March 14

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties will publish its monthly assessment of oil markets.

Later in the day, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, March 15

The International Energy Agency will release its monthly report on global oil supply and demand.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Thursday, March 16

The U.S. government is to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage.

Friday, March 17

Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.