Oil slips to $71, hit by talk of higher OPEC+ production

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Reuters

KEY POINTS
  • Analysts expect U.S. crude stockpiles to have risen by 1.9 million barrels last week, the fourth straight increase.
  • Oil fell Monday after comments from Russia raised concern the OPEC-led supply-cutting pact may not be renewed.
  • OPEC and its allies are due to meet in June to decide whether to continue the arrangement.
Reusable: Oil worker 130728
Andrew Burton | Getty Images

Brent oil slipped to around $71 a barrel on Tuesday, pressured by expectations of higher U.S. inventories and concern about Russia’s willingness to stick with OPEC-led supply cuts.

Analysts on average expect U.S. crude stockpiles to have risen by 1.9 million barrels last week, the fourth straight increase. The first of this week’s stockpile reports is due at 2030 GMT from the American Petroleum Institute.

“We have already seen these inventories going higher in the last week’s print,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at TF Global Markets in London.

“The rising inventory data has raised many questions for investors – no one wants to see the oil glut again.”

Brent crude, the global benchmark, was down 12 cents at $71.06 a barrel at 0801 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 6 cents to $63.46.

While OPEC-led supply cuts have boosted Brent by more than 30 percent this year, gains have been limited by worries that slowing economic growth could weaken demand for fuel.

Oil also fell on Monday after comments from Russia raised concern the OPEC-led supply-cutting pact may not be renewed. Russia and the producer group may decide to boost output to fight for market share with the United States, TASS news agency ited Finance Minister Anton Siluanov as saying.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia, an alliance known as OPEC+, have been cutting output since Jan. 1. They decide in June whether to continue the arrangement.

“There is a growing concern that Russia will not agree on extending production cuts and we could see them officially abandon it in the coming months,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

Oil edges lower as supply concerns check losses

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Reuters

KEY POINTS
  • Oil prices edged lower on Monday after international benchmark Brent hit a fresh five-month high in the previous session, but concerns over global supplies provided a floor to losses.
  • Brent crude oil futures were at $71.40 a barrel at 0015 GMT, down 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close.
  • U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $63.60 per barrel, down 29 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last settlement. WTI rose 0.5 percent on Friday.
RT: Oil refinery Libya 131218
Ismail Zitouny | Reuters

Oil prices edged lower on Monday after international benchmark Brent hit a fresh five-month high in the previous session, but concerns over global supplies provided a floor to losses.

Brent crude oil futures were at $71.40 a barrel at 0015 GMT, down 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close. Brent closed up 1 percent on Friday when prices hit a high of $71.87 a barrel, the highest since Nov. 12.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $63.60 per barrel, down 29 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last settlement. WTI rose 0.5 percent on Friday.

The head of Libya’s National Oil Corp warned on Friday that renewed fighting could wipe out crude production in the country.

“Supply side issues remained a concern for the market. Libyan rebel leader Khalifa Haftar moved forces closer to Tripoli,” ANZ Bank said in a research note.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies meet in June to decide whether to continue withholding supply. OPEC, Russia and other producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, are reducing output by 1.2 million bpd from Jan. 1 for six months.

OPEC’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, is considered keen to keep cutting, but sources within the group said it could raise output from July if disruptions continue elsewhere.

Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov was quoted by the TASS news agency as saying on Saturday that Russia and OPEC may decide to boost production to fight for market share with the United States but this would push oil prices as low as $40 per barrel.

Oil slips from five-month highs as economic worries counter tight market

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Reuters

KEY POINTS
  • International benchmark Brent futures touched their strongest level since last November at $71.34 per barrel on Tuesday, before losing ground to $70.96 per barrel by 0158 GMT, down 14 cents, or 0.2%, from their last close.
  • U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures also hit a November 2018 high, at $64.77 per barrel, before easing to $64.36, 4 cents below their last settlement.
RT: Offshore oil rig Norway 160211
An offshore oil rig off the coast of Norway.
Nerijus Adomaitis | Reuters

Oil prices eased on Tuesday, slipping away from 5-month highs reached earlier in the session as a sluggish economic outlook countered an otherwise tight market.

International benchmark Brent futures touched their strongest level since last November at $71.34 per barrel on Tuesday, before losing ground to $70.96 per barrel by 0158 GMT, down 14 cents, or 0.2%, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures also hit a November 2018 high, at $64.77 per barrel, before easing to $64.36, 4 cents below their last settlement.

Despite generally bullish oil markets, concerns that an economic slowdown this year will hit fuel consumption have been preventing crude prices from rising even higher, traders said.

And while fears of a global recession ebbed following strong U.S. jobs figures and improved Chinese manufacturing data late last week, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said there was still a “significant slowing in growth globally” in 2019.

The bank said it expects Brent and WTI to average $70 per barrel and $59 per barrel respectively in 2019, and $65 per barrel and $60 per barrel in 2020.

Despite the economic concerns, global oil markets are tight, and Brent and WTI crude oil futures have risen by 40% and 30% respectively since the start of the year.

“Renewed fighting in Libya … has seen Brent crude break above $70 per barrel, ” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Libya is a significant supplier of oil to Europe, producing around 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in March.

A warplane attacked Tripoli’s only functioning airport on Monday as eastern forces advancing on the Libyan capital disregarded international appeals for a truce in the latest of a cycle of warfare since Muammar Gaddafi’s fall in 2011.

Hansen said the fighting in Libya added to an already tense market, which has been tightened this year by U.S. sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuelaas well as supply cuts led by the producer club of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Oil prices edge higher, but future demand concerns cap gains

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Reuters
KEY POINTS
  • Brent was up by 17 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $68.14 by 0311 GMT, reversing earlier losses of a similar magnitude.
  • U.S. crude futures added 9 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $60.03, also reversing losses in earlier trade.
Reusable: Oil worker 130728
Andrew Burton | Getty Images

Oil prices crept up on Wednesday, extending the previous session’s rise, but gains were kept in check amid growing fears over the impact of a global economic slowdown on demand.

Brent was up by 17 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $68.14 by 0311 GMT, reversing earlier losses of a similar magnitude. On Tuesday, the global benchmark rose 76 cents to $67.97 a barrel, not far below its year-to-date high of $68.69, reached on March 21.

U.S. crude futures added 9 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $60.03, also reversing losses in earlier trade. The U.S. benchmark rose $1.12, or 1.9 percent, to $59.94 a barrel in the previous session.

“We seem to have reached a state of equilibrium after the recent headline-driven choppy trading and we need to see some new impetus for price direction,” said Jeff Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA in Singapore.

That is unlikely to come until there is a conclusion on the U.S.-China trade talks, he added, referring to negotiations that restart on Thursday as the world’s two largest economies seek to end an eight-month old trade war.

Oil rose on Tuesday as Venezuela’s main oil export port of Jose and its four crude upgraders were unable to resume operations following a massive power blackout on Monday, the second in a month.

Prices have risen more than 25 percent this year, supported by supply curbs by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producers, along with U.S. sanctions on exports from Venezuela and Iran.

But worries about demand have limited oil’s rally as manufacturing data from Asia, Europe and the United States pointed to an economic slowdown.

The American Petroleum Institute, a trade organization, said late on Tuesday that U.S. crude inventories rose 1.9 million barrels in the latest week, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 1.2 million barrels.

The market was waiting to see whether official figures due later on Wednesday would confirm the API data.

“It will be very interesting to see the inventory numbers tonight. If we see a fall we could see a sharp move higher,” OANDA’s Halley said.

Hedge funds and other money managers have increased bets that demand for oil will be sustained, even as the market rallied last week.

Oil prices rise amid OPEC supply cuts, sanctions on Venezuela and Iran

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Reuters

KEY POINTS
  • International Brent crude oil futures marked a 2019-peak of $67.80 per barrel in Asian morning hours. That was also the strongest level since November 2018.
  • U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $58.38 per barrel, up 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last settlement, and also close to November 2018 highs reached the previous day.
  • In Venezuela, oil production and exports have been disrupted by a political and economic crisis that has caused massive blackouts and supply shortages, while Washington has barred U.S. companies from doing business with the Venezuelan government, including state-owned oil firm PDVSA.
Reusable CNBC: oil drilling rig West Texas 150825-Brennan
Morgan Brennan | CNBC

Brent crude oil prices on Thursday hit their highest so far this year, pushed up by ongoing supply cuts led by OPEC and by U.S. sanctions against Venezuelaand Iran.

An unexpected dip in U.S. crude oil inventories and production also lifted prices, traders said.

International Brent crude oil futures marked a 2019-peak of $67.80 per barrel in Asian morning hours. That was also the strongest level since November 2018.

Brent was still at $67.75 per barrel at 0244 GMT, up 20 cents, or 0.3 percent, from its last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $58.38 per barrel, up 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last settlement, and also close to November 2018 highs reached the previous day.

“Tighter global inventories from OPEC-led supply cuts and … U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan petroleum products have cemented support for oil prices,” said Benjamin Lu of Singapore-based brokerage Phillip Futures.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-aligned producers including Russia have been withholding oil supply since the start of the year to tighten global markets and prop up crude prices.

In Venezuela, oil production and exports have been disrupted by a political and economic crisis that has caused massive blackouts and supply shortages, while Washington has barred U.S. companies from doing business with the Venezuelan government, including state-owned oil firm PDVSA.

Amid the turmoil, two storage tanks exploded at a heavy-crude upgrading project in eastern Venezuela on Wednesday, according to an oil industry source and a legislator.

In the Middle East, the United States aims to cut Iran’s crude exports by about 20 percent to below 1 million barrels per day (bpd) from May by requiring importing countries to reduce purchases to avoid U.S. sanctions, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Meanwhile, a weekly report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell last week as refineries hiked output.

Crude inventories dropped by 3.9 million barrels in the last week, to 449.07 million barrels, compared with analyst expectations for an increase of 2.7 million barrels.

U.S. crude oil production also dipped, falling by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 12 million bpd.