Venezuela is blowing debt payments ahead of a huge, make-or-break bill

  • Venezuela’s state oil giant has two massive bond payments coming due in the next two weeks.
  • The oil-dependent nation missed several debt payments totaling nearly $350 million last week.
  • Analysts don’t expect Venezuela to default in the coming weeks, but the missed payments have rattled the market.
Nicolas Maduro, president of Venezuela, speaks during a swearing in ceremony for the new board of directors of Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), Venezuela's state oil company, in Caracas, Venezuela, on Tuesday, Jan. 31, 2017.

Carlos Becerra | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Nicolas Maduro, president of Venezuela, speaks during a swearing in ceremony for the new board of directors of Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), Venezuela’s state oil company, in Caracas, Venezuela, on Tuesday, Jan. 31, 2017.

One week before Venezuela faces a critical debt payment, the distressed petrostate is already late on a series of smaller bills — and no one can say exactly why.

The nation’s state-owned oil giant, Petroleos de Venezuela, SA, has two major bond payments totaling about $2 billion coming due in the next two weeks. While the market expects the company, better known as PDVSA, to avoid default, the missed payments have rattled investors and raised fresh questions about how long embattled President Nicolas Maduro’s regime might last.

“You’re cutting close to the edge of not enough money in the checking account to pay the bills,” said Ray Zucaro, chief investment officer at RVX Asset Management, an asset manager specializing in emerging and frontier markets.

Last week, Venezuela missed five coupon payments totaling nearly $350 million tied to the debt of PDVSA, the government and the utility Electricidad de Caracas. That stoked a minor sell-off in a number of outstanding bonds.

Santelli Exchange: The

Santelli Exchange: The “bitcoinization” of Venezuela  

As for the upcoming payments, the first is due next Friday. The price of that bond dipped from a one-year high of $86.80 last week to $83.48 on Monday. It has rallied from a 12-month low of $62.50 on Aug. 1.

PDVSA needs to pay $841 million in principal, plus interest, on that bond. It’s a critical moment for Venezuela because a default is seen as hastening Maduro’s demise. Making matters worse, the collateral against the bond is Citgo, PDVSA’s Houston-based refining and retail subsidiary.

The following week, on Nov. 2, a nearly $1.2 billion PDVSA bond is maturing. Total outstanding obligations for 2017 are about $3.4 billion, and there’s no grace period for the two biggest payments.

As Venezuela’s economic and political crisis worsens, foreign reserves have dwindled to just $9.9 billion. But analysts and money managers say more than half of that could be in gold and illiquid assets.

The market currently puts the odds of a Venezuelan default at 15 percent, according to an analysis by RVX Asset Management, but Zucaro said he believes the chances are closer to 40 percent. The environment is deteriorating, he said, as Venezuela’s latest election results are being questioned and as sanctions on the country expand to include measures that prevent it from raising new funds.

Given the severe cash crunch, it’s possible that Venezuela skipped out on the five coupon payments, which have a 30-day grace period, in order to allocate those funds to the payment due on the Oct. 27 bond, Zucaro said.

Without help, Venezuela cannot pay liabilites alone: Daniel Osorio

Without help, Venezuela cannot pay liabilities: Daniel Osorio  

Edward Glossop, an emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said that’s possible. Since Venezuela is essentially locked out of capital markets, the impact of missing the payments on its ability to borrow is negligible, he said.

But Glossop believes another explanation is more likely: that U.S. sanctions have created technical problems that have forced Venezuela to make alternative arrangements to pay its debt, delaying payments. Some U.S. institutions could be refusing to deal with the government for fear of sanctions, he said. However, he doesn’t doubt Maduro’s willingness or ability to pay, given that making debt payments has been a priority.

Capital Economics projects that Venezuela is unlikely to default until 2019, though Glossop says it faces another round of hefty payments in 2018.

“Next year is quite tough again. It will be sort of touch and go,” he said. “If oil prices remain where they are, we think they could get through.”

Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, believes Maduro will continue to rely on Russia to bail out the regime. Russia’s biggest oil company, Rosneft, has given PDVSA financial support.

“While it makes sense that they will preserve as much cash to avoid default, they will not be able to do it without Russia. So the question will be how much acreage will this cost them?” she said in an email. “Rosneft is acquiring Venezuelan assets at fire sale prices.”

Russia’s Rosneft to take control of major Kurdish oil pipeline

CNBC

  • The deal is part of President Vladimir Putin’s bid to boost Russian influence
  • Investment in the pipeline is seen at $1.8 billion

Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Russian energy major Rosneft has agreed to take control of the main oil pipeline in Iraq’s Kurdistan, further boosting its role as the main international investor in the semi-autonomous region.

The move is an apparent part of a broader strategy by President Vladimir Putin to ratchet up Moscow’s political and economic influence in the Middle East. It came amid the crisis in Kurdistan’s relations with the central government in Baghdad, which erupted after the region held an independence referendum last month.

Rosneft said its share in the project may total as much as 60 percent, while the current pipeline operator KAR Group will retain 40 percent.

Sources familiar with the deal said Rosneft’s investment in the project was seen totaling about $1.8 billion.

The deal comes days after Baghdad threatened to re-route a big chunk of oil flows towards an old oil pipeline, which has been out of operation for several years since Kurdistan built its own infrastructure to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.

The main lifters of the oil there are trading houses Vitol, Petraco, Glencore and most recently Rosneft via pre-financing deals.

Rosneft’s influential Chief Executive Officer Igor Sechin said on Thursday that Kurshish authorities and Baghdad have to resolve their differences by themselves.

Iraq, along with neighboring Iran and Turkey, has pledged to isolate Kurdistan in the wake of last month’s referendum.

That includes cutting off air and banking ties and reviving an old pipeline to Turkey to deprive Erbil of a big chunk of oil revenues.

Rosneft will be investing in expanding Erbil’s independent pipeline, which Baghdad has targeted, hoping to boost its capacity by a third to 950,000 barrels per day. That is the equivalent of about 1 percent of total global supply.

With Rosneft acquiring 60 percent in the project, the Kremlin oil major effectively becomes a controlling stakeholder in Kurdish oil infrastructure. That should give Erbil some sense of security as it faces unprecedented pressure from its neighbours.

Rosneft has already agreed to invest $400 million in five oil blocks in Iraqi Kurdistan.

It also had previously loaned Kurdistan $1.2 billion, guaranteed by oil sales, and is seeking to help Erbil build two major oil and gas pipelines.