Oil slips to $71, hit by talk of higher OPEC+ production

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Reuters

KEY POINTS
  • Analysts expect U.S. crude stockpiles to have risen by 1.9 million barrels last week, the fourth straight increase.
  • Oil fell Monday after comments from Russia raised concern the OPEC-led supply-cutting pact may not be renewed.
  • OPEC and its allies are due to meet in June to decide whether to continue the arrangement.
Reusable: Oil worker 130728
Andrew Burton | Getty Images

Brent oil slipped to around $71 a barrel on Tuesday, pressured by expectations of higher U.S. inventories and concern about Russia’s willingness to stick with OPEC-led supply cuts.

Analysts on average expect U.S. crude stockpiles to have risen by 1.9 million barrels last week, the fourth straight increase. The first of this week’s stockpile reports is due at 2030 GMT from the American Petroleum Institute.

“We have already seen these inventories going higher in the last week’s print,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at TF Global Markets in London.

“The rising inventory data has raised many questions for investors – no one wants to see the oil glut again.”

Brent crude, the global benchmark, was down 12 cents at $71.06 a barrel at 0801 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 6 cents to $63.46.

While OPEC-led supply cuts have boosted Brent by more than 30 percent this year, gains have been limited by worries that slowing economic growth could weaken demand for fuel.

Oil also fell on Monday after comments from Russia raised concern the OPEC-led supply-cutting pact may not be renewed. Russia and the producer group may decide to boost output to fight for market share with the United States, TASS news agency ited Finance Minister Anton Siluanov as saying.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia, an alliance known as OPEC+, have been cutting output since Jan. 1. They decide in June whether to continue the arrangement.

“There is a growing concern that Russia will not agree on extending production cuts and we could see them officially abandon it in the coming months,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

Oil prices inch down as U.S. crude stocks climb

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Reuters

KEY POINTS
  • International Brent crude oil futures were at $67.55 a barrel at 0929 GMT, down 28 cents from their last close.
  • U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $59.21 per barrel, down 20 cents from their last settlement.
  • Demand concerns on the back of economic jitters linked to the U.S.-Chinese trade war have capped prices.
RT: Venezuela oil pumps over water 150520
Oil pumps are seen in Lake Maracaibo, in Lagunillas, Ciudad Ojeda, in the state of Zulia, Venezuela.
Isaac Urrutia | Reuters

Oil prices were down on Thursday, extending losses into a second consecutive session following a surprise rise in U.S. crude inventories.

International Brent crude oil futures were at $67.55 a barrel at 0929 GMT, down 28 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $59.21 per barrel, down 20 cents from their last settlement.

U.S. crude inventories rose last week by 2.8 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 1.2 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

Demand concerns on the back of economic jitters linked to the U.S.-Chinese trade war have also capped prices.

In a fresh development, China has made unprecedented proposals on a range of issues, including forced technology transfer, as the two sides work to end their protracted dispute.

Overall, bullish sentiment underpins the market, which has seen Brent rise almost 30 percent this year.

“Today’s fall does not derail the short-term bullish argument that both the OPEC+ production cuts and supply outages will outweigh the global growth concerns and rising U.S. production,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst, OANDA.

Oil prices have found support from efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-affiliated allies like Russia, known as OPEC+, to trim output as well as plummeting Venezuelan output.

On top of U.S. sanctions, power cuts have crippled Venezuela’s oil industry.

The country’s main oil export port of Jose and four crude upgraders, needed to convert Venezuela’s heavy oil into exportable grades, have been halted since Monday, industry sources said.

U.S. sanctions have also hit Iranian crude exports.

In early May, analysts expect the United States will extend some sanction waivers on Iranian oil but might reduce the number of countries receiving them.

The 180-day exemptions were granted in November to eight countries – China, India, Greece, Italy, Taiwan, Japan, Turkey and South Korea.

Washington seeks to bring Iranian oil exports to zero.

“Enjoy it whilst it lasts. The upcoming six months will bring relatively healthy demand for OPEC oil,” PVM’s Tamas Varga said in a note.

“If the unplanned supply cuts remain in place… oil prices should edge towards $75/bbl basis Brent in coming months as global inventories will draw.”

Oil prices hit 2019 highs amid OPEC-led supply cuts and US sanctions

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  • International benchmark Brent crude futures touched 2019 highs.
  • The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-affiliated suppliers including Russia are withholding supply in order to tighten the market and prop up prices.

Oil refinery and storage Australia

Jason Reed | Reuters

Brent crude oil prices hit 2019 highs above $65 per barrel on Friday, spurred by U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and Iran as well as OPEC-led supply cuts.

Brent rose as high as $65.10, pushing past the $65 mark for the first time this year, before edging back to $64.97 a barrel by 0450 GMT. That was still 0.6 percent above the last close.

The international benchmark for oil prices is at a near 3-month high and set for a 4.6 percent gain for the week.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $54.70 per barrel, up 29 cents, or 0.6 percent, from their last settlement.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-affiliated suppliers including Russia are withholding supply in order to tighten the market and prop up prices.

The producer group known as OPEC+ has agreed to cut crude output by a joint 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd). Top exporter Saudi Arabia said it would cut even more in March than the deal called for.

Russia has cut its oil production by 80,000-90,000 barrels per day from its level in October, Moscow’s reference level for its cuts, the country’s energy minister said.

“Brent should average $70 per barrel in 2019, helped by voluntary (Saudi, Kuwait, UAE) and involuntary (Venezuela, Iran) declines in OPEC supply,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note.

It also expects “a 2.5 million barrels per day drop in OPEC supply from 4Q18 into 4Q19.”

Commodity investment firm Goehring & Rozencwajg (G&R) said that oil production from non-OPEC producers like Brazil, Mexico or the North Sea was also struggling, further tightening the market.

“The North Sea, Mexico and Brazil all disappointed and we expect this to continue going forward,” G&R said in a note published on Thursday.

Trade data in Refinitiv showed that combined crude oil shipments out of the North Sea, Mexico and Brazil were at 4.2 million bpd in January, down from 4.4 million bpd in December.

Standing against these declines is soaring U.S. crude production, which rose by more than 2 million bpd last year, to 11.9 million bpd, making America the world’s biggest oil producer.

Most analysts expect U.S. output to rise past 12 million bpd soon, and perhaps even hit 13 million bpd by the end of the year.

Rising U.S. shale oil supply, increasing spare capacity within OPEC and stagnating fuel consumption meant the medium-term oil price outlook was lower, BoAML said.

“We see growing downside risks to medium-term oil prices on rising U.S. supply and slower consumption,” the U.S. bank said. It expected Brent to range between $50 and $70 per barrel in the coming five years.

US oil prices edge up as market eyes tighter supply

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  • U.S. oil prices inched up on Tuesday, buoyed by expectations of tightening global supply due to U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and production cuts led by OPEC.
  • U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $54.77 per barrel at 0223 GMT, up 21 cents or 0.4 percent.
  • International Brent crude oil futures were at $62.72 a barrel, also up 21 cents or 0.4 percent, after closing down 0.4 percent in the previous session.

Oil pumps are seen in Lake Maracaibo, in Lagunillas, Ciudad Ojeda, in the state of Zulia, Venezuela.

Isaac Urrutia | Reuters
Oil pumps are seen in Lake Maracaibo, in Lagunillas, Ciudad Ojeda, in the state of Zulia, Venezuela.

U.S. oil prices inched up on Tuesday, buoyed by expectations of tightening global supply due to U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and production cuts led by OPEC.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $54.77 per barrel at 0223 GMT, up 21 cents or 0.4 percent. They closed down 1.3 percent on Monday, after earlier touching their highest since Nov. 21 at $55.75 a barrel.

International Brent crude oil futures were at $62.72 a barrel, also up 21 cents or 0.4 percent, after closing down 0.4 percent in the previous session.

Analysts said that U.S. sanctions on Venezuela had focused market attention on tighter global supplies.

“Fresh U.S. sanctions on the country could see 0.5-1 percent of global supply curtailed,” said Vivek Dhar, mining and energy analyst, Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

The sanctions will sharply limit oil transactions between Venezuela and other countries and are similar to but slightly less extensive than those imposed on Iran last year, experts said on Friday after looking at details posted by the Treasury Department.

With fresh sanctions potentially looming, a flotilla loaded with about 7 million barrels of Venezuelan oil has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, some holding cargoes bought ahead of the latest U.S. sanctions and others whose buyers are weighing who to pay, according to traders, shippers and Refinitiv Eikon data.

Meanwhile, oil supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell in January by the largest amount in two years, a Reuters survey found, as Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies over-delivered on the group’s supply-cutting pact while Iran, Libya and Venezuela registered involuntary declines.

Russia has been in full compliance with its pledge to gradually cut its oil production, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in a statement on Monday, adding that production fell by 47,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January from October.

Oil torn between economic slowdown concerns, OPEC-led supply cuts

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  • Oil prices were steady on Wednesday as signs of a global economic slowdown were countered by OPEC-led supply cuts which helped support Brent crude futures above $60 per barrel.
  • International Brent crude oil futures were at $60.66 per barrel at 0444 GMT, 2 cents above their last close.
  • U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were flat from their last settlement, at $52.11 a barrel.

Oil operations in the Permian Basin near Midland, Texas

Nick Oxford | Reuters
Oil operations in the Permian Basin near Midland, Texas

Oil prices were steady on Wednesday as signs of a global economic slowdown were countered by OPEC-led supply cuts which helped support Brent crude futures above $60 per barrel.

International Brent crude oil futures were at $60.66 per barrel at 0444 GMT, 2 cents above their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were flat from their last settlement, at $52.11 a barrel.

“Fundamentals offer no clear price direction,” said Norbert Ruecker, head of commodity research at Swiss bank Julius Baer.

Prices were prevented from rising as signs of a global economic slowdown mounted.

China, Asia’s biggest economy, faces rising trade uncertainties this year, a commerce ministry official said on Wednesday, after the government earlier this week reported poor December trade data, with both exports and imports contracting from a year earlier.

In Japan, core machinery orders slowed sharply in November in a sign corporate capital expenditure could lose momentum as a bruising U.S.-China trade war spills into the global economy.

Adding to the trade woes, the U.S. economy is taking a larger-than-expected hit from a partial government shutdown, White House estimates showed on Tuesday, as contractors and even the Coast Guard go without pay and talks to end the impasse seem stalled.

The outlook for the global economy darkened further when British lawmakers on Tuesday overwhelmingly rejected Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal to leave the European Union.

OPEC cuts support crude

Despite this, oil markets are receiving support from supply cuts started late last year by producer group the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and major non-OPEC producer Russia.

However, surging U.S. crude oil production, which hit a record 11.7 million barrels per day (bpd) late last year, threatens to undermine the OPEC-led efforts.

U.S. crude oil output is expected to rise to a record of more than 12 million bpd this year and to climb to nearly 13 million bpd next year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday, in its first 2020 forecast.

With so much uncertainty around demand and supply, the outlook for oil markets is unclear.

Oil prices are expected to oscillate close to current levels, according to a large annual survey of energy professionals conducted by Reuters between Jan. 8 and 11, with Brent prices in 2019 expected to average $65 per barrel, unchanged from surveys in 2016, 2017 and 2018.

“The oil market remains amply supplied and prices are set to trade rangebound,” Ruecker said. “Softening demand makes too-high prices short-lived … Similarly, (supply) cuts and slowing shale output make too-low prices short-lived.”