Oil prices slip amid ample US output, Brent drifts away from five-month high

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Reuters

KEY POINTS
  • Brent crude futures were at $71.42 a barrel at 0235 GMT, down 20 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close. Brent fell 0.1 percent on Wednesday, after earlier touching its highest since Nov. 8 at $72.27 a barrel.
  • U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $63.69 per barrel, down 7 cents, or 0.1 percent, from their previous settlement. WTI closed the last session down 0.5 percent.
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An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota.
Andrew Cullen | Reuters

Oil prices dropped on Thursday as the impact of plentiful U.S. production offset a surprise decline in U.S. inventories, leaving international benchmark Brent retreating from a five-month high touched in the previous session.

Brent crude futures were at $71.42 a barrel at 0235 GMT, down 20 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close. Brent fell 0.1 percent on Wednesday, after earlier touching its highest since Nov. 8 at $72.27 a barrel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $63.69 per barrel, down 7 cents, or 0.1 percent, from their previous settlement. WTI closed the last session down 0.5 percent.

U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels in the week to April 12, compared with analyst expectations for an increase of 1.7 million barrels, Department of Energy (DoE) showed on Wednesday.

“A persistent rise in U.S. oil output, together with lingering demand-side concerns emerging from the U.S.-China trade dispute, is limiting price gains, ” Abhishek Kumar, Head of Analytics at Interfax Energy in London.

While official data on Wednesday showed China’s economy grew by 6.4 percent in the first quarter, defying expectations for a further slowdown, talks on a U.S.-China trade deal have yet to bear fruit.

While the U.S.-China trade war has rumbled on, prices have been supported this year by an agreement reached by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, including Russia, to limit their oil output by 1.2 million barrels per day.

Global supply has also been tightened further by U.S. sanctions on OPEC members Venezuela and Iran.

Iran’s crude exports have dropped in April to their lowest daily level this year, tanker data showed and industry sources said, suggesting a drawdown in buyer interest ahead of expected further pressure from Washington.

Surging U.S. production has filled some of the gap in supplies, although not all of the lost production can be immediately replaced by U.S. shale oil due to refinery configurations.

“The unexpected drawdown in U.S. commercial crude oil stocks was balanced by lower-than-expected withdrawals in the country’s gasoline and distillate inventories,” Kumar said.

Gasoline stocks fell by 1.2 million barrels, less than analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.1 million-barrel drop.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell 362,000 barrels, also not as much as forecasts for a 846,000-barrel drawdown, the EIA data showed.

Net U.S. crude imports fell last week by 659,000 barrels per day.

Oil edges lower as supply concerns check losses

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Reuters

KEY POINTS
  • Oil prices edged lower on Monday after international benchmark Brent hit a fresh five-month high in the previous session, but concerns over global supplies provided a floor to losses.
  • Brent crude oil futures were at $71.40 a barrel at 0015 GMT, down 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close.
  • U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $63.60 per barrel, down 29 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last settlement. WTI rose 0.5 percent on Friday.
RT: Oil refinery Libya 131218
Ismail Zitouny | Reuters

Oil prices edged lower on Monday after international benchmark Brent hit a fresh five-month high in the previous session, but concerns over global supplies provided a floor to losses.

Brent crude oil futures were at $71.40 a barrel at 0015 GMT, down 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close. Brent closed up 1 percent on Friday when prices hit a high of $71.87 a barrel, the highest since Nov. 12.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $63.60 per barrel, down 29 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last settlement. WTI rose 0.5 percent on Friday.

The head of Libya’s National Oil Corp warned on Friday that renewed fighting could wipe out crude production in the country.

“Supply side issues remained a concern for the market. Libyan rebel leader Khalifa Haftar moved forces closer to Tripoli,” ANZ Bank said in a research note.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies meet in June to decide whether to continue withholding supply. OPEC, Russia and other producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, are reducing output by 1.2 million bpd from Jan. 1 for six months.

OPEC’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, is considered keen to keep cutting, but sources within the group said it could raise output from July if disruptions continue elsewhere.

Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov was quoted by the TASS news agency as saying on Saturday that Russia and OPEC may decide to boost production to fight for market share with the United States but this would push oil prices as low as $40 per barrel.

Oil prices fall on surging US crude supply, economic slowdown

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Reuters

KEY POINTS
  • International benchmark Brent futures were at $71.44 per barrel at 0424 GMT, down 29 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last close.
  • U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $64.28 per barrel, down 33 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their previous settlement.
RT: Oil Russia Bashneft company 150128
Sergei Karpukhin | Reuters

Oil prices fell on Thursday, pressured as U.S. crude stockpiles surged to their highest levels in almost 17 months amid record production and as economic concerns cast doubt over growth in demand for fuel.

International benchmark Brent futures were at $71.44 per barrel at 0424 GMT, down 29 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $64.28 per barrel, down 33 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their previous settlement.

U.S. crude inventories rose 7 million barrels to 456.6 million barrels in the last week, their highest since November 2017, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

U.S. crude oil production remained at a record 12.2 million barrels per day (bpd), making the United States the world’s biggest oil producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia.

There are also concerns that an economic slowdown will soon dent fuel consumption after the International Monetary Fund this week downgraded its global growth forecast to the lowest in a decade.

Despite the surge in U.S. supply and the economic concerns, global oil markets remain tight amid supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), U.S. sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuela, and escalating fighting in Libya.

”(Oil markets will remain tight) as long as Saudi Arabia continues to back the production cut deal as aggressively as it has done so far,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Brent and WTI have risen by around 30 and 40 percent respectively since the start of the year.

“Pressure to global supplies continues to mount because of sanctions-linked problems in Iran and Venezuela and rising geopolitical risk in Libya,” said Stephen Innes, head of trading at SPI Asset Management.

Beyond the short-term outlook for oil markets, a lot of attention is on the future of demand amid the rise of alternative fuels for transport.

“We believe global demand has another 10 million barrels bpd of growth, with over half from China,” Bernstein Energy said in a note on Thursday.

Current oil demand stands around 100 million bpd.

Bernstein said it expected oil demand to peak around 2030, but added that “we expect a long plateau rather than a sharp decline” in consumption after that.

“While no industry lasts forever, the age of oil is far from over,” Bernstein said.

Oil edges higher amid tightening global supply, gains capped by economic slowdown

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Reuters

KEY POINTS
  • International benchmark Brent futures were at $70.66 per barrel at 0158 GMT, up 5 cents from their last close.
  • U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $64.10 per barrel, up 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, above their last settlement.
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Flames emerge from a pipeline at the oil fields in Basra, southeast of Baghdad, Iraq, October 14, 2016.
Essam Al-Sudani | Reuters

Oil prices crept higher on Wednesday, supported by supply cuts by producer club OPEC and U.S. sanctions against oil exporters Iran and Venezuela, but restricted by expectations that an economic slowdown could soon dent fuel consumption.

International benchmark Brent futures were at $70.66 per barrel at 0158 GMT, up 5 cents from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $64.10 per barrel, up 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, above their last settlement.

Both benchmarks hit five-month highs on Tuesday, before easing on global growth worries. [nL3N21S064]

Overall, oil markets have been tightened this year by U.S. sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuela, as well as supply cuts by the producer club of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-affiliated producers, a group known as OPEC+.

As a result, Brent and WTI crude oil futures have risen by around 40 percent and 30 percent respectively since the start of the year.

“The global oil market is clearly moving back towards balance thanks to OPEC+ production cuts. OPEC production has fallen 1.98 million barrels per day (bpd) from October levels,” ING bank said in a note.

The Dutch bank said the reduction was not only down to voluntary supply cuts, which the group started this year to prop up prices.

“Venezuelan oil output is estimated to have fallen from 1.19 million bpd in October to 890,000 bpd in March, while output from Iran has fallen from 3.33 million bpd to 2.71 million bpd due to sanctions. Declines from these two exempt countries account for almost 47 percent of the reduction seen from OPEC,” ING said.

Despite the OPEC-led cuts, not all regions are in tight supply.

Oil production in the United States has risen by more than 2 million barrels per day since early 2018, to a record 12.2 million bpd.

“WTI has not seen the same strength (as Brent)… given the relatively more bearish fundamentals in the U.S. market,” said ING bank.

“U.S. crude oil inventories remain stubbornly high,” it added.

U.S. crude stocks rose by 4.1 million barrels in the week to April 5, to 455.8 million barrels, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday.

On the demand side, there are concerns that an economic slowdown will soon hit fuel consumption.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Tuesday that the global economy was slowing more than expected and that a sharp downturn may be looming.

In its third downgrade since October, the IMF said the global economy will likely grow 3.3 percent this year, the slowest expansion since 2016. The forecast cut 0.2 percentage point from the IMF’s outlook in January.

Oil slips from five-month highs as economic worries counter tight market

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Reuters

KEY POINTS
  • International benchmark Brent futures touched their strongest level since last November at $71.34 per barrel on Tuesday, before losing ground to $70.96 per barrel by 0158 GMT, down 14 cents, or 0.2%, from their last close.
  • U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures also hit a November 2018 high, at $64.77 per barrel, before easing to $64.36, 4 cents below their last settlement.
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An offshore oil rig off the coast of Norway.
Nerijus Adomaitis | Reuters

Oil prices eased on Tuesday, slipping away from 5-month highs reached earlier in the session as a sluggish economic outlook countered an otherwise tight market.

International benchmark Brent futures touched their strongest level since last November at $71.34 per barrel on Tuesday, before losing ground to $70.96 per barrel by 0158 GMT, down 14 cents, or 0.2%, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures also hit a November 2018 high, at $64.77 per barrel, before easing to $64.36, 4 cents below their last settlement.

Despite generally bullish oil markets, concerns that an economic slowdown this year will hit fuel consumption have been preventing crude prices from rising even higher, traders said.

And while fears of a global recession ebbed following strong U.S. jobs figures and improved Chinese manufacturing data late last week, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said there was still a “significant slowing in growth globally” in 2019.

The bank said it expects Brent and WTI to average $70 per barrel and $59 per barrel respectively in 2019, and $65 per barrel and $60 per barrel in 2020.

Despite the economic concerns, global oil markets are tight, and Brent and WTI crude oil futures have risen by 40% and 30% respectively since the start of the year.

“Renewed fighting in Libya … has seen Brent crude break above $70 per barrel, ” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Libya is a significant supplier of oil to Europe, producing around 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in March.

A warplane attacked Tripoli’s only functioning airport on Monday as eastern forces advancing on the Libyan capital disregarded international appeals for a truce in the latest of a cycle of warfare since Muammar Gaddafi’s fall in 2011.

Hansen said the fighting in Libya added to an already tense market, which has been tightened this year by U.S. sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuelaas well as supply cuts led by the producer club of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).